Navigating Complexity: Developing Products for Risk-Informed Planning in Central Vietnam

Kurzfassung

The central Vietnamese city of Hue and its surrounding region face mounting challenges from recurring and increasingly severe flood events, driven by a complex interplay of climate change, rapid urbanization, and environmental degradation. Addressing these multifaceted risks requires a shift from traditional, hazard-centric approaches toward integrated, risk-informed planning. This keynote introduces key results and learnings from FloodAdaptVN, a research and development project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The primary objectives of FloodAdaptVN were fourfold: 1. To assess current and future flood risks, considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability under various climate and socio-economic development scenarios; 2. To evaluate and prioritize a diverse set of adaptation and risk-reduction measures, with a particular focus on ecosystem-based approaches; 3. To co-develop an interactive, WebGIS-based decision-support system (FRAME – Flood Risk Adaptation Measures and Evaluation) to enable risk-informed planning and policymaking; and 4. To strengthen local capacity through stakeholder engagement, training, and integration of scientific tools into decision-making frameworks. The project’s interdisciplinary partner structure brought together expertise from hydrology, geoinformatics, urban and regional planning, remote sensing, environmental economics, and policy analysis – ensuring that flood risk was assessed and addressed from multiple scientific and practical perspectives. A major outcome of the project is the production of high-resolution flood risk scenarios for different future climate scenarios (RCPs) and socio-economic development trajectories (SSPs). Among others, these assessments revealed that over 76% of Hue’s population and a large share of critical infrastructure are already exposed to flood risks, with risk levels projected to increase by 2050 if no adaptive action is taken. Through the application of the Economics of Climate Adaptation (ECA) framework, expected future economic losses were quantified, revealing an average annual damage of 400 billion VND today, increasing up to 2,800 billion VND under extreme climate change scenarios. These insights are operationalized through the FRAME platform, a modular, WebGIS-based tool that allows stakeholders to visualize and compare risk layers, assess adaptation options, and develop tailored flood management strategies. The project’s key recommendations for improved flood risk governance and climate adaptation in Hue and beyond are: • Develop and use in-depth risk knowledge, particularly regarding vulnerable groups and risk drivers, as a basis for targeted, efficient, and equitable adaptation strategies. • Combine structural, social, institutional, and ecosystem-based options to address all components of risk – including hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and root causes. • Embrace a catchment-based planning approach that links upstream and downstream dynamics. • Prioritize governance measures such as risk-informed urban development and improved cross-sector coordination. • Leverage tools like FRAME to support evidence-based, participatory planning processes. • Pursue sustainable financing, including through climate funds and risk transfer mechanisms, and integrate flood risk management into long-term development pathways. Ultimately, FloodAdaptVN presents a modular and transferable approach for integrated flood risk management, linking science, policy, and practice to build resilience. This keynote will explore how research-based tools and stakeholder-driven processes can work together to enable effective, future-oriented adaptation planning. Building on the success of the R&D phase, the project has now entered its implementation phase to support and accompany the integration of outcomes into planning processes at local and regional levels.