High-resolution air pollutant emissions from thermal power plants in EU decarbonisation scenarios

Kurzfassung

Air pollutant emissions from thermal power plants (e.g. coal, gas, biomass) have significant negative impacts on human health. Given the ambitious decarbonisation objectives stated by the countries of the European Union (EU) by 2030 and the increase in renewable energy capacities, the quantity, spatial and temporal distribution of power plant emissions are expected to change considerably and dynamically. Projections of these changes are required in order to assess their potential impact on air quality. This work aims at estimating air pollutant emissions from thermal power plants in the EU for the year 2030 considering different decarbonisation scenarios. Using the energy system model framework REMix, we model power plant activities with high temporal and spatial resolution. We calculate emissions based on the modelled activities, primarily using plant-specific emission factors derived from EU-reported data. In addition, we account for higher emissions due to inefficient plant operation (e.g. from frequent startups or part load conditions). Our results show that emissions from inefficient plant operation could make up more than 25% of total emissions in 2030.