Towards Conflict Monitoring with VIIRS Nighttime Data: The War in Ukraine

Kurzfassung

This thesis presents a capabilities review of VIIRS nighttime visible and infrared data for conflict monitoring, using the war in Ukraine as a case study. By integrating the VIIRS-derived data sets of VIIRS Nightfire (VNF) and VIIRS Boat detection (VBD) with boundary data, territorial control shapefiles, and UNOSAT damage assessments, a series of spatial and temporal conflict indicators were developed. These were then used to generate insights on a strategic, operational and tactical level by assessing heavy industry status, monitoring maritime activity and offshore platforms, detecting the frontline and tracking urban combat across Ukraine. VIIRS data, despite its low spatial resolution and susceptibility to atmospheric interference, was shown to provide meaningful insights when combined with supporting geodata in all use cases, though limits apply. Furthermore, this thesis highlights the trade-offs between using raster-based and derivative VIIRS products, and positions VIIRS within a wider multisensory environment. While the utility of the developed methods for other conflicts remains to be evaluated, the approach demonstrates that VIIRS can support rapid, low-cost, and scalable monitoring of conflict zones. In an increasingly unstable geopolitical context, the ability to independently and systematically track changes in human activity and infrastructure will only increase in importance.