Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a modular approach for user-centric multi-risk assessment

Kurzfassung

We live in a rapidly changing and globalized society. The increasing interdependence and interconnection of our economic, social and technical systems; growing urbanization; and increasing vulnerability to natural hazards (including climate change) are leading to ever more complex risk situations. This paper presents a conceptual approach for user-centred multi-risk assessment aimed to support potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or critical infrastructure operators. Based on the latest scientific and technical capabilities, we developed a method that enables the simulation and visualization of a range of scenarios with different intensities. It is based on a modular and decentralized system architecture using distributed web services that are published online, including a user-friendly interface. The approach is demonstrated using the example of earthquakes and tsunamis for the Lima metropolitan area (Peru), a megacity exposed to various cascading natural hazards. The development involved a wider group of Peruvian stakeholders from research and practice in a structured, iterative and participative feedback process over a period of 2.5 years to capture the needs and requirements from the user perspective. Results from the feedback process, including 94 responses to 5 questionnaires, confirmed the potential of the demonstrator as a complementary analysis and visualization tool. Together with the visualization of cascading processes, the ability to simulate and compare scenarios of varying severity was considered relevant and useful for improving the understanding of and preparedness for complex multi-risk situations, in practical applications, especially at the local level.