Revisiting the Linear Chain Trick in epidemiological models: Implications of underlying assumptions for numerical solutions

Kurzfassung

In order to simulate the spread of infectious diseases, many epidemiological models use systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to describe the underlying dynamics. These models incorporate the implicit assumption, that the stay time in each disease state follows an exponential distribution. However, a substantial number of epidemiological, data-based studies indicate that this assumption is not plausible. One method to alleviate this limitation is to employ the Linear Chain Trick (LCT) for ODE systems, which realizes the use of Erlang distributed stay times. As indicated by data, this approach allows for more realistic models while maintaining the advantages of using ODEs. In this work, we propose an advanced LCT model incorporating eight infection states with demographic stratification. We review key properties of LCT models and demonstrate that predictions derived from a simple ODE-based model can be significantly distorted, potentially leading to wrong political decisions. Our findings demonstrate that the influence of distribution assumptions on the behavior at change points and on the prediction of epidemic peaks is substantial, while the assumption has no effect on the final size of the epidemic. As the corresponding ODE systems are often solved by adaptive Runge-Kutta methods such as the Cash Karp method, we also study the implications on the time-to-solution using Cash Karp 5(4) for different LCT models. Eventually and for the application side, we highlight the importance of incorporating a demographic stratification by age groups to improve the prediction performance of the model. We validate our model by showing that realistic infection dynamics are better captured by LCT models than by a simple ODE model.