Transformation pathways towards a climate neutral European energy system using integrated power and gas networks

Kurzfassung

The rapid and fundamental transformation of energy infrastructure towards climate neutrality poses significant challenges to both infrastructure planners and policy makers around the world. In order to make informed decisions, energy system optimization models play a fundamental role in assessing infrastructure needs under a variety of alternative scenarios for future development. These scenarios are based on current European targets for domestic production and import of hydrogen, and the associated uncertainty of availability and cost of green energy carriers in a global market. To answer research questions on the optimal transformation pathway, we employ the energy system optimization model REMix for multi-period optimization with different carbon budgets and limited as well as perfect foresight. This integrated computation of transformation pathways allows us to derive a holistic strategy regarding both the least-cost transition and the optimal timing of infrastructure conversion from natural gas to hydrogen. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution required to adequately represent renewable energy sources and flexibility options, such models are among the largest linear optimization problems currently being tackled. This computational complexity is further increased by the integrated assessment across multiple sectors and energy carriers, and the integrated optimization along a multi-period transformation path to avoid stranded investments. To this end, some complexity reduction techniques such as myopic foresight and reduced time resolution are applied to manage the resulting complexity. This presentation discusses insights and key findings from an integrated analysis of optimal transformation paths. First, we assess the required European energy infrastructure in terms of spatial allocation of generation capacity and robust network topology for both power grids and gas pipelines. Second, we explore the trade-off between annual investment rates in renewables and their impact on the remaining carbon budget of the European energy sector.