How can we study the impact of space weather on the end user services of navigation and communication systems?

Kurzfassung

It is well known that space weather can cause significant disruption to modern communication and navigation systems, leading to increased security risks, economic losses and reduced quality of life. The use of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) today enables the implementation of a large number of automated and autonomous applications, ranging from self-driving vehicles and precision agriculture to last-mile drone delivery services. In many applications, GNSS signals can be the primary or only means of achieving precise positioning. However, low-power radio communication and navigation systems can be limited in their operational reliability or accuracy by interference with radio wave propagation in the ionosphere [1] or directly by interference with radio radiation from the sun [2]. Mitigating the effects of space weather on technical systems as well as possible protective measures are therefore of essential importance. Existing ground- and space-based GNSS data, combined with appropriate models, can provide information about the ionosphere and its impact on navigation and communication systems. However, the different data and models and their validation with regard to their benefit for end-user services are still critical points in the risk assessment of space weather events. Therefore, it is important to use the multitude of information from existing services in the field of precise positioning (e.q. Real Time Kinematic, Precise Point Positioning) or the status reproduction of automated systems (e.g. Automatic Dependent Surveillance in aviation, Automatic Identification System in shipping) to statistically evaluate the impact of space weather-related ionospheric disturbances on navigation and communication at the user level. In the presentation we show examples how navigation and communication services under the influence of space weather-related ionospheric disturbances are only available with limited accuracy or can even fail completely for short periods of time. We present initial statistical analyses in order to derive a correlation between event class and severity of service disturbances. We will further discuss existing Space Weather products and new developments in terms of their potential to forecast effects of space weather on user services. Finally, we will use the available information to assess the current space weather situation as we approach the 25th cycle solar maximum.