Integrative considerations on energy transition

Kurzfassung

The creation and analysis of energy scenarios is an unquestionably essential methodology to support the necessary sustainable transformation of the energy system, and must do justice to the complex socio-technical character of this system. Therefore, technical, ecological, economic, institutional, and organizational as well as social aspects must be taken into account. In the Helmholtz Program Energy System Design (ESD), researchers from the German Aerospace Center (DLR), Forschungszentrum Jülich (FZJ), and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) have developed and applied an integrative scenario approach with the aim of meeting these requirements better than the energy scenarios that have dominated discussion to date. The approach essentially consists of two elements: 1) the development of socalled socio-technical scenarios, and 2) the estimation of the impacts of these scenarios with regard to their effects on sustainability indicators relevant to the energy system. The aim is to enhance the basis for decision-making regarding the sustainable transformation of the energy system. The analyses show the need to consider the range of possible  developments in population and economic performance, as key drivers of energy and infrastructure requirements , in a more systematic way than previous scenario analyses. Irrespective of population development or future economic performance, the  electrification of production and transportation processes  should be at the heart of suitable transformation strategies. This requires comprehensive  spatial and temporal flexibility  in the electricity sector. For technical reasons, electrification must be supplemented by the use of defossilized hydrogen. However, threequarters of this would be imported. The transformation of the heating sector, on the other hand, requires a  concerted interplay between energy-efficient building refurbishment, a change of energy source, and the expansion of electricity and heating grids . The transformation of energy supply and use involves the  use of critical resources . Therefore,  suitable strategies  are essential to reduce geopolitical risks and use these resources efficiently. The transformation of energy supply and use is a necessary condition for achieving a climate-neutral energy sector, but not a sufficient one. The establishment of an infrastructure for  effective CO2-management is indispensable  in order to compensate for unavoidable greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). However, the goal of a sustainable energy system also requires consideration of  non-climate-related environmental effects . If the  macroeconomic effects  of a transformation are included in the development of suitable strategies, it can be seen that the transformation strategies lead to an  increase in domestic value added, but do not lead to a substantial change in the overall economic demand for labor . On the other hand,  additional burdens on low-income households are possible . This depends largely on socio-economic boundary conditions, which are closely linked to energy-related variables. Finally, the degree of  internalization of external costs , as an important condition for the success of a sustainable transformation, is significantly influenced by political and economic developments, as well as by the  innovative capacity of the system