Analysis of climate effects resulting from airspace closures following the Ukrainian crisis

Kurzfassung

Since February 2022, Ukraine and Russia have been in an ongoing conflict that poses difficulties for aviation. At the same time, the climate impact of air traffic is also a highly topical issue. The conflict has resulted in a general airspace closure in Ukraine and a ban on overflights in Russia for many countries, which has led to detours. The thesis aims to quantify the effects of these detours on the climate. A total of 504 flights (252 per day, 28.01.2022/25.03.2022) and their trajectories were compiled via OpenSky. From these flights, a climate assessment is carried out using the Trajectory Calculation Module (TCM) in combination with GRIDLAB and two simplified metrics (CO2 equivalents and Average Temperature Response (ATR)). Results show an additional 42,848km in flight distance, 328.48 tonnes in fuel consumption and an increase in total emissions of 1,450.73 tonnes. The total nonCO2 equivalents (-0.06, previously 3.00), as well as the ATR (-3.93nK, previously 6.39μK), have decreased, which is primarily due to a southern shift of flight routes and thus a lowered climate impact, especially from CiC.