Analysis of Decarbonization Pathways for Shipping in the North and Baltic Seas

Kurzfassung

Maritime transport is the most energy-efficient mode of transport for most types of goods. Nevertheless, the current global fleet of ships is responsible for about 820 Mt of greenhouse gas emissions per year, representing about 2.5% of total global emissions. As maritime trade is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades, emissions will increase further in a business-as-usual scenario. In view of this situation, the shipping industry faces increasing pressure to reduce its carbon intensity. The carbon intensity of ships can be reduced through various measures, including both operational ones, such as operating at reduced speed, and technical ones, such as using energy-saving technologies or renewable fuels. As none of the current technically feasible measures is expected to be sufficient on its own to achieve an adequate reduction in emissions, different combinations of measures will be needed. However, the question of which combination to apply for different ships and activities, considering their individual characteristics and needs, as well as the expected future availability and price of different fuels and technologies, remains open. In this context, in order to help decision-makers to identify and evaluate different possible decarbonization pathways, we are developing a simulation-based methodology to analyze how an individual ship or fleet performs over time under different decarbonization strategies. This short paper outlines the methodology. Next, we plan to apply the methodology to ships operating in the North and Baltic seas.