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Global differences in urbanization dynamics from 1985 to 2015 and outlook considering IPCC climate scenarios

Taubenböck, Hannes und Mast, Johannes und Geiß, Christian und Wurm, Michael und Esch, Thomas und Seto, Karen C. (2024) Global differences in urbanization dynamics from 1985 to 2015 and outlook considering IPCC climate scenarios. Cities, 151, Seiten 1-31. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105117. ISSN 0264-2751.

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Offizielle URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264275124003317

Kurzfassung

Cities are expanding all over the world. In this study we aim to understand how the pace and scale of urban growth dynamics vary across geographies. This study contributes to the literature in four key ways: First, the study is comprehensive including all 1567 cities worldwide that had >300,000 inhabitants in 2015. Second, comparison of settlement dynamics of cities is performed in relation to continents, to geographic regions, to national levels and to city sizes. Third, a data-driven approach to delineate city boundaries allows for consistent comparisons across geographies. Fourth, the measured past urban trends are projected into the future and linked to climate scenarios used by the Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to estimate where spatial focal areas of urbanization and climate-change meet. The study is based on remote sensing-derived geodata such as the World Settlement Footprint Evolution dataset for the period 1985 to 2015 and morphological urban areas. The key findings are: At continental scale, highest relative urban growth rates are measured in Asia. Among the IPCC regions, highest relative urban growth rates are in East Asia. In contrast, lowest growth rates are in Oceania and Europe. As expected, across most regions, there is a general decline in relative growth rates over the study period. One surprising finding is that absolute settlement expansion rates are not declining over time, but are rather relatively constant. It is also interesting to see that across and within countries growth rates of urban settlements vary widely in Asia, whereas in Europe there are only marginal differences. And finally, a look into the future reveals that certain regions can expect particularly high exposures. In South Asia and West Africa, for example, very high urban growth rates and a very high increase in predicted maximum rainfall are forecast. The greatest increase in extreme temperatures is predicted for Europe and North America. Settlement growth has already slowed there, so adaptation measures are taking center stage.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/204568/
Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Global differences in urbanization dynamics from 1985 to 2015 and outlook considering IPCC climate scenarios
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Taubenböck, HannesHannes.Taubenboeck (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4360-9126NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Mast, JohannesJohannes.Mast (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6595-5834NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Geiß, ChristianChristian.Geiss (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7961-8553NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Wurm, Michaelmichael.wurm (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5967-1894NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Esch, ThomasThomas.Esch (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5868-9045NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Seto, Karen C.Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United StatesNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:Juni 2024
Erschienen in:Cities
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:151
DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2024.105117
Seitenbereich:Seiten 1-31
Verlag:Elsevier
ISSN:0264-2751
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Urbanization Urban growth Remote sensing Comparative urban research Future exposures
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Raumfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Raumfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):R - Fernerkundung u. Geoforschung, R - Geowissenschaftl. Fernerkundungs- und GIS-Verfahren
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Deutsches Fernerkundungsdatenzentrum > Georisiken und zivile Sicherheit
Deutsches Fernerkundungsdatenzentrum > Dynamik der Landoberfläche
Hinterlegt von: Taubenböck, Prof. Dr. Hannes
Hinterlegt am:22 Jul 2024 11:22
Letzte Änderung:25 Jul 2024 09:24

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