Projection of greenhouse gases and air pollution emissions from coal power plants in selected countries

Kurzfassung

This thesis presents a comprehensive spatial analysis of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from coal power plants across five major countries: China, Germany, India, South Africa, and the United States. Leveraging a detailed emissions inventory of over 4,700 plants and integrated assessment modeling, the study uncovers key trends, projections, and policy implications associated with the coal power sector’s environmental impact.A comparative analysis of emissions data from 2015 to 2023 reveals divergent trajectories among the studied countries. China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by 20%, while India experienced a substantial 76% rise. Conversely, Germany and the United States achieved reductions of 37% and 47%, respectively. Spatial mapping of 2023 emissions highlights regional disparities, with emission hot-spots concentrated in eastern and southern China, northern and eastern India, and the Midwestern and Eastern United States. Future projections for 2025, 2030, 2035, and 2040 were generated using multiple Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) under different climate policy scenarios. The 1.5°C warming pathway, aligned with the Paris Agreement, was emphasized as the most economically efficient and environmentally effective scenario. Under this pathway, all countries demonstrate potential for significant emissions reductions by 2040, with China and India projected to achieve (CO2) emission reductions of 73% and 65%, respectively, compared to 2023 levels. However, the study highlights persistent challenges in managing (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions across all countries. China’s (NOx) emissions are projected to decrease by 67%, while India shows a 56.1% reduction by 2040. However, the United States exhibits a unique convergence in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission projections, with a 67.8% decrease by 2040, indicating successful policy interventions and technological advancements in (SO2) mitigation. The thesis underscores the importance of transparent, comprehensive, and standardized emissions data at the unit level to inform targeted mitigation strategies and policy development. It emphasizes the need for collaborative efforts among nations to accelerate the transition towards cleaner energy sources while considering regional disparities, socioeconomic factors, and energy access issues. By providing a detailed spatial analysis of coal power emissions and future projections, this research contributes valuable insights to guide policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in developing effective strategies for climate change mitigation and air quality improvement. The findings underscore the urgency of phasing out unabated coal power and transitioning to sustainable energy systems to reach nearby the Paris Agreement goals and protect public health.