Reducing climate impact of aviation: An economic analysis of different energy carrier options for a long-range aircraft with an envisioned entry into service in the year 2035.

Kurzfassung

In this thesis, the economic viability of different energy carrier options for a long- range aircraft with an envisioned entry into service in the year 2035 is investigated. The analysis is motivated by the aim of reducing the climate impact of aviation, which is assumed to account for around 5% of the anthropogenic climate change. To perform the economic analysis, an appropriate cost estimation model is first se- lected based on an extensive literature review. The suitability of the model for esti- mating the costs of two alternative energy carriers, namely sustainable aviation fuel and liquid hydrogen, is evaluated, and possible adjustments to the model are pro- posed. With the model adjusted, aircraft design and flight mission data are used to calculate the direct operating costs of three different aircraft concepts. The aircraft concepts are optimized to use either Jet-A1, sustainable aviation fuel, or liquid hydrogen. Sensitivity analyses are performed to evaluate the impact of various parameters on the economics of the different energy carriers. The economic analysis indicates that for the period from 2035 to 2050, for a long- range aircraft, Jet-A1 is likely to be the most cost-effective option. The cost differ- ence compared to Jet-A1 is smaller for sustainable aviation fuel than for liquid hy- drogen and decreases over time. It can be concluded that without additional policy measures, more sustainable en- ergy carriers are unlikely to be cost-competitive in the long-range segment of com- mercial aviation compared to the fossil fuels currently in use.