Analysis for Criteria for Evaluation of Space Missions

Kurzfassung

The exploration of space plays an important role in understanding our place in the Universe, the history of our Solar System, and our planet Earth. Worldwide space agencies and private space industries all face the same challenges in the planning and execution of their missions. Space missions are often associated with long development times and large costs, and therefore require careful evaluation and planning. For this reason, it is important to determine in advance whether the mission is worthwhile despite the possible cost and time overruns. The presented work aims to support the department of System Analysis Space Segment of DLR in developing a method for the evaluation of space missions. For this purpose, the following research question is raised: How can the success rate and importance of space missions be measured, and thereby the selection of future missions be efficiently made? Before the start of this work, possible criteria were identified which could have an influence on, the success rate of a mission. The defined criteria are: Number of collaborations Globality of the topic Scientific relevance Mission renaming Spillover effects To answer the research question, an extensive literature review of space missions was performed. Specifically, various missions of the space agencies NASA, ESA, JAXA, ISRO, ROSCOSMOS and CNSA were identified and analyzed with regard to the previously defined criteria. A calculation of the influence rates of each criterion on the different space agencies was carried out. Results for each space agency are presented in radar graphs, both individually and as a weighted summary. With the help of the report, a perspective on the determination of future successful space missions can be provided alongside the challenges that may occur due to unpredictable factors. The evaluation shows that a combination of globality, number of collaborations, and spillover effect provides the highest probability of success, with the global factor being the dominant one. The number of name-changes does not play a role in the mission success of the space agencies, except for ESA. Nevertheless, other factors such as funding limitations, reorganization of the space agency, or recommendations of the science community can be unpredictable and represent an unknown risk for the project. During this investigation, a new subtype in the scientific relevance criterion was found. For future research in this field, a closer look could be taken into developments that were originally designed for space but have since been used on Earth. This research could clarify, if this new subchapter is worth an own criteria. Further research into other agencies and missions could show additional influences on the mission success rate of space agencies on a global scale.