Life cycle-based environmental impacts of energy system transformation strategies for Germany: Are climate and environmental protection conflicting goals?

Kurzfassung

In the development of climate-friendly energy system transformation strategies it is often ignored that environmental protection encompasses more than climate protection alone. There is therefore a risk of developing transformation strategies whose climate friendliness comes at the expense of higher other environmental impacts. Consequently, an assessment of environmental impacts of energy system transformation strategies is required if undesired environmental side effects of the energy system transformation are to be avoided and transformation strategies are to be developed that are both climate and environmentally friendly. In this paper, ten structurally different transformation strategies for the German energy system were re-modeled (in a harmonized manner). Five of these scenarios describe pathways for a reduction of direct, energy related CO2 emissions by 80%, the other five by 95%. Life cycle-based environmental impacts of the scenarios were assessed by coupling the scenario results with data from a life cycle inventory database focusing on energy and transport technologies. The results show that the transformation to a climate-friendly energy system reduces environmental impacts in many impact categories. However, exceptions occur with respect to the consumption of mineral resources, land use and certain human health indicators, which could increase with decreasing CO2 emissions. The comparison of environmental impacts of moderately ambitious strategies (80% CO2 reduction) with very ambitious strategies (95% CO2 reduction) shows that there is a risk of increasing environmental impacts with increasing climate protection, although very ambitious strategies do not necessarily come along with higher environmental impacts than moderately ambitious strategies. A reduction of environmental impacts could be achieved by a moderate and - as far as possible - direct electrification of heat and transport, a balanced technology mix for electricity generation, by reducing the number and size of passenger cars and by reducing the environmental impacts from the construction of these vehicles.