Simon, Sonja und Xiao, Mengzhu und Harpprecht, Carina und Sasanpour, Shima und Gardian, Hedda und Pregger, Thomas (2022) A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5°C Carbon Budget. Sustainability. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/su14021025. ISSN 2071-1050.
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Offizielle URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/2/1025
Kurzfassung
We present an energy transition pathway constrained by a total CO2 budget of 7 Gt allocated to the German energy system after 2020, the Budget Scenario (BS). We apply a normative backcasting approach for scenario building based on historical data and assumptions from existing scenario studies. The modeling approach combines a comprehensive energy system model (ESM) with REMix—a cost optimization model for power and heat that explicitly incorporates sector coupling. To achieve the necessary CO2 reduction, the scenario focuses on electrifying all end use sectors until 2030, adding 1.5–2 million electric vehicles to the road per year. In buildings, 400,000–500,000 heat pumps would be installed annually by 2030, and the share of district heating would double until 2050. In the scenario, coal needs to be phased out by 2030. Wind and Photovoltaic (PV) capacities would need to more than double to 290 GW by 2030 and reach 500 GW by 2050. The BS results indicate that a significant acceleration of the energy transition is necessary before 2030 and that this higher pace must be maintained thereafter until 2050.
elib-URL des Eintrags: | https://elib.dlr.de/148367/ | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Dokumentart: | Zeitschriftenbeitrag | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Zusätzliche Informationen: | Gefördert durch den Impuls- und Vernetzungsfonds der Helmholtzgemeinschaft innerhalb der Helmholtz Initiative Climate Adaptation and Mitigation (HI-CAM) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Titel: | A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5°C Carbon Budget | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Autoren: |
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Datum: | Januar 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Erschienen in: | Sustainability | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Referierte Publikation: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.3390/su14021025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Verlag: | Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 2071-1050 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Status: | veröffentlicht | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Stichwörter: | net-zero; energy scenario; decarbonization; carbon budget; energy transformation pathway; renewable energy; electrification | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Forschungsbereich: | Energie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programm: | Energiesystemdesign | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programmthema: | Energiesystemtransformation | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Energie | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | E SY - Energiesystemtechnologie und -analyse | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben): | E - Systemanalyse und Technologiebewertung | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Standort: | Stuttgart | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Vernetzte Energiesysteme > Energiesystemanalyse, ST | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt von: | Simon, Dr. Sonja | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt am: | 18 Jan 2022 15:51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Letzte Änderung: | 07 Okt 2022 17:05 |
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