Decarbonization of the German chemical industry in light of the Paris Agreement

Kurzfassung

As a ratifier of the Paris Agreement, Germany aims to be greenhouse gas (GHG) neutral by 2050. The chemical industry is currently responsible for 8% of the final energy demand in Germany. This industry is hard to decarbonize being a complex multisector, where end products are applied in different industries. Supply chains are highly integrated, the diversity of chemical products is large, and the infrastructure has a long lifespan, meaning that changes require long-term planning. The Helmholtz Climate Initiative (HI-CAM) research project assesses how various industries in Germany can facilitate the transition to a GHG neutral balance. This study contributes to the HI-CAM project by examining the case of the chemical industry. The research question "How can the German chemical industry transform to comply with the carbon goals set in the Paris Agreement?", is addressed. First, a technology table is delivered which shows the identified existing and developing technologies for the chemical product groups of ammonia, urea, chlorine, methanol, and High Value Chemicals (HVC). The consequences of shifts in energy carriers and production technologies are examined for process and energy-related emissions. Specifically, the final energy demand, the energy carriers used and the GHG emissions are considered. Second, two scenarios are created: a reference (RS) and a normative scenario (NS). The RS serves as a benchmark, while the NS considers an optimal situation for technology production pathways to achieve minimal GHG emissions. Finally, the scenarios are compared with carbon budgets for temperature increases of 1.5 and 1.75 °C. The results show that the transformation requires the phase-out of conventional technologies and the increase of technologies such as electrolysis, methane pyrolysis, biomass gasification and plastic waste pyrolysis. Electricity demand is expected to increase substantially due to the high share of electrolyzers. The ultimate strategy forward to 2050 is highly dependent on the decarbonization of the energy sector. An unsuccessful transition of the energy system has large implications for the chemical industry and might opt for a different approach favoring other alternatives such as biomass gasification. Comparing carbon budgets with the scenarios shows that in all cases the carbon budget is exceeded. Low-carbon production technologies are not expected to be sufficiently developed before 2035, leaving no carbon budget for the future. Time is running if Germany wants to comply with the Paris Agreement. Without extending the focus from feedstocks and production technologies switches, the carbon budget will most likely not be met. Circular economy measures, industry-wide and cross-regional cooperation will be essential to further decarbonize the chemical sector. It is recommended to consider potential synergies and tradeoffs to see how the chemical sector can transform from an energy-intensive and high emitting sector to a solution-provider to other sectors.