System Analysis of Spacecraft Design Opportunities Considering Decreasing Launch Cost

Kurzfassung

Spacecraft (S/C) design is often constrained by mass and size because of the major resulting launch costs associated with them. However, launch costs have been decreasing significantly in the last years, especially for small satellite missions. For some missions, the launch is now costing up to 80 % less than what was considered only a few years ago. This trend leads to the following research question: Which S/C design opportunities may arise from recent decreasing launch costs? This study attempts to answer this question with a combined system analysis of S/C design aspects in combination with launch vehicle influence and cost trends. The analysis applies the design thinking method “double diamond”, which is utilized to structure ideas for analysis and new concepts. The research process starts by discovering aspects of the current design of spacecraft and trends in the launch vehicle market that might enable new solutions. This will help to explore and define typical design drivers and in particular, the influence of LV on the design of S/C. In the second phase of the method the study develops potential S/C design opportunities considering decreasing launch cost and improved launch options. From the range of presented approaches, three different scenarios of interest varying from slight to drastic modifications were selected to analyze further. The subsequent scenario analysis represents an exemplary and preliminary assessment of the effect of introduced modifications using a cost-benefit scoring matrix developed in the study. It assesses essential mission costs for the payload, S/C bus, launch and operations, which originate from the introduced changes. In the next step, the analysis evaluates the benefit impact on three major aspects of payload performance, mission operation duration and the mission development schedule. Although the 3 scenarios vary a lot in their principal approach, the final results are very close to each other in cost and benefit. This can be partly explained by the chosen conservative reference mission and modest assumptions of the introduced modifications. The study concludes that such analysis can hardly be generalized and showcases the method for designers to further analyze individual missions with specific assumptions and modifications. Finally, the study presents recommendations for spacecraft designers, such as potential additional standard components, which can also include non-monetary benefit considerations. One example is the addition or upgrade of a propulsion system for all satellites that would not only increase launch flexibility, but also address sustainability in space by addressing the issue of space debris mitigation.