German and European Ground-Transport Emissions in three different scenarios until 2040

Kurzfassung

Transport energy consumption in Europe has reached a share of over 30 % of the total final energy consumed and transport contributes significantly to multiple environmental problems, including air emissions. In a joint research project, Transport and the Environment (VEU), Institutes of the German Aerospace Center (DLR) and Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG) have established a modelling framework for assessing air quality and climate effects of transport. In three explorative scenarios possible development pathways of the transportation system in Germany are analyzed. A concept to expand the findings to Europe is introduced. In this paper we highlight briefly the specifications, settings and results of the VEU-Scenarios. The three scenarios describe a Reference case, a Free Play scenario where states are more nationally focused and developments are mostly market driven and a Regulated Shift scenario where cooperatively acting states implement more stringent regulations to guide developments. Significantly lower car ownership and an increase in the use of public transit is observed in the Regulated Shift scenario while the reduction of emissions is largely influenced by the development of propulsion technologies. Because of its importance, the development of the passenger vehicle characteristics, the market penetration of advanced technologies and their emissions are discussed in more detail. The future share of the new technologies is modelled with a dedicated vehicle market scenario model. Adequate emission factors are derived based on literature data as well as on own measurements of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. Furthermore, traffic volumes on the German road network, their emissions and the energy demand of electric vehicles are calculated and spatially plotted on a 5x5 km grid, using fleet and road specific emission factors including exhaust and non-exhaust emissions. The depiction of the three scenarios shows the magnitude and spatial characteristics of future emission changes that can be expected from the transport sector.