Analysing the modal shift to rail potential within the long-distance passenger travel market in Germany

Kurzfassung

The German Federal Government has defined ambitious climate protection targets. This also entails considerable efforts in the transport sector, which accounts for significant greenhouse gas emissions and final energy consumption. Beside the daily/shortdistance travel, also long-distance mobility (more than 100 kilometers) has to be considered for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and final energy consumption. This part of the passenger transport market is of great importance, since it causes a large proportion of passenger-distance in Germany. The predominate proportion of long-distance passenger rail transport services is operated by electrified trains. Therefore, the railway system is predestined to become an important and promising component of a sustainable transport system. We present results of a recently finished study, carried out by the authors on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). The goal was to investigate impacts of selected steps to increase the attractiveness of longdistance passenger rail transport system in Germany in order to support a modal shift to rail. We evaluate their success by modelling travel demand, CO2 emissions and final energy consumption in the long-distance-transport sector in the year 2030. This paper gives insights into the study, its chosen approach and main findings. It starts with results from a literature review to identify and structure possible and reasonable measures. In particular, concepts and alternative approaches from other European countries are of great importance. Building on this, three different scenarios are introduced. The first scenario includes only measures reducing travel times, which are realizable by exploiting train speed potentials. The second scenario is defined by reduced fares, applying a reduction of taxes and duties on a level comparable to other European countries. The last scenario is a combination of the first two ones. The impact on modal shift for the relevant market is determined by a nationwide long-distance passenger transport model. The model is differentiated by four means and six trip purposes. 412 traffic analysis zones represent origins and destinations within Germany. Following the discussion of results of modelling travel demand, decreases in CO2 emissions and final energy consumption are shown. Finally, recommendations for actions are introduced and discussed.