The potential of energy crops in Poland and Germany

Kurzfassung

Biomass is broadly applicable in each energy sector and for a high variety of applications, but it is strongly restricted by its availability. Especially energy crop potentials are in heavy competition with food and fibre as well as nature conservation and construction activity, while the potential for additional cultivated land is constrained by technical and sustainability considerations. This paper presents a model HEKTOR which provides insight in the availability of agricultural land for the production of energy crops under sustainability restrictions on a national level. The model was developed for Poland and Germany. Its basic assumption is that agricultural land which is not used for food, raw materials, building activity and nature conservation is available to produce bioenergy. The model is founded on a broad base of statistical data on agricultural production and food demand and considers trends in the respective areas. HEKTOR is used to develop scenarios for the future availability of agricultural land for energy crop production. Two scenarios are presented: A 'business-as-usual’ scenario is compared to a sustainability scenario. On the one hand, the model quantifies the conflict of objectives between enhanced extensification in agriculture and increased area for nature conservation. On the other hand, the synergies in restricting built up area and increased mobilisation of agricultural residues are assessed. Our results show that the sustainable energy potential from agricultural biomass is strongly restricted for Germany compared to its energy demand whereas in Poland domestic agricultural biomass provides a much higher potential for energy supply, even if sustainability is comprehensively considered. For bioenergy from agricultural cultivation to remain a sustainable option in the energy sector, its influence on the food markets must be considered more thoroughly and a comprehensive approach to sustainable development in land use is a prerequisite.