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Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models

Tourpali, K. und Bais, A.F. und Kazantzidis, A. und Zerefos, C.S. und Akiyoshi, H. und Avngaard, M. und Austin, J. und Brühl, C. und Butchart, N. und Chipperfield, M.P. und Dameris, Martin und Deushi, M. und Giorgetta, Marco und Eyring, V. und Kinnison, Doug und Mancini, Eva und Marsh, D.R. und Nagashima, T. und Pitari, Giovanni und Plummer, D.A. und Rozanov, Eugene und Shibata, K. und Tian, W. (2009) Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, Seiten 1165-1172. DOI: 10.5194/acp-9-1165-2009.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/1165/2009/acp-9-1165-2009.pdf

Kurzfassung

We have estimated changes in surface solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation under cloud free conditions in the 21st century based on simulations of 11 coupled Chemistry- Climate Models (CCMs). The total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature projected from CCMs were used as input to a radiative transfer model in order to calculate the corresponding erythemal irradiance levels. Time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon are presented for the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of the 21st century and smaller towards its end. This decreasing tendency varies with latitude, being more pronounced over areas where stratospheric ozone has been depleted the most after 1980. Between 2000 and 2100 surface erythemal irradiance is projected to decrease over midlatitudes by 5 to 15%, while at the southern high latitudes the decrease is twice as much. In this study we have not included effects from changes in cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, which will likely be affected in the future due to climate change. Consequently, over some areas the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the evolution of these parameters.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Tourpali, K.Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki, GR
Bais, A.F.Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki, GR
Kazantzidis, A.Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki, GR
Zerefos, C.S.Univ. of Athens, GR
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Avngaard, M.UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ, USA
Austin, J.MPI für Chemie, Mainz
Brühl, C.UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Butchart, N.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Dameris, MartinDLR
Deushi, M.Met. Res. Institute, Tsukuba, J
Giorgetta, MarcoMPI für Meteorologie, Hamburg
Eyring, V.DLR
Kinnison, DougNCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Mancini, EvaUniv. of L'Aquilla, I
Marsh, D.R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Nagashima, T.Nat. Inst. f. Environmental Studies, J
Pitari, GiovanniUniv. of L'Aquilla, I
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, CND
Rozanov, EugeneETH Zürich, CH
Shibata, K.Met. Res. Institute, Tsukuba, J
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Datum:Februar 2009
Erschienen in:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Ja
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:9
DOI :10.5194/acp-9-1165-2009
Seitenbereich:Seiten 1165-1172
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:ozone, stratosphere, CCMs, future evolution
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Verkehr und Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programm:Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programmthema:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Weltraum
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Hinterlegt von: Jana Freund
Hinterlegt am:24 Nov 2010 17:39
Letzte Änderung:12 Dez 2013 21:06

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