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Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models

Tourpali, K. and Bais, A.F. and Kazantzidis, A. and Zerefos, C.S. and Akiyoshi, H. and Avngaard, M. and Austin, J. and Brühl, C. and Butchart, N. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Dameris, Martin and Deushi, M. and Giorgetta, Marco and Eyring, V. and Kinnison, Doug and Mancini, Eva and Marsh, D.R. and Nagashima, T. and Pitari, Giovanni and Plummer, D.A. and Rozanov, Eugene and Shibata, K. and Tian, W. (2009) Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, pp. 1165-1172. DOI: 10.5194/acp-9-1165-2009.

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Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/1165/2009/acp-9-1165-2009.pdf

Abstract

We have estimated changes in surface solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation under cloud free conditions in the 21st century based on simulations of 11 coupled Chemistry- Climate Models (CCMs). The total ozone columns and vertical profiles of ozone and temperature projected from CCMs were used as input to a radiative transfer model in order to calculate the corresponding erythemal irradiance levels. Time series of monthly erythemal irradiance received at the surface during local noon are presented for the period 1960 to 2100. Starting from the first decade of the 21st century, the surface erythemal irradiance decreases globally as a result of the projected stratospheric ozone recovery at rates that are larger in the first half of the 21st century and smaller towards its end. This decreasing tendency varies with latitude, being more pronounced over areas where stratospheric ozone has been depleted the most after 1980. Between 2000 and 2100 surface erythemal irradiance is projected to decrease over midlatitudes by 5 to 15%, while at the southern high latitudes the decrease is twice as much. In this study we have not included effects from changes in cloudiness, surface reflectivity and tropospheric aerosol loading, which will likely be affected in the future due to climate change. Consequently, over some areas the actual changes in future UV radiation may be different depending on the evolution of these parameters.

Document Type:Article
Title:Clear sky UV simulations for the 21st century based on ozone and temperature projections from Chemistry-Climate Models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Tourpali, K.Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki, GR
Bais, A.F.Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki, GR
Kazantzidis, A.Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki, GR
Zerefos, C.S.Univ. of Athens, GR
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Avngaard, M.UCAR/NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab., Princeton, NJ, USA
Austin, J.MPI für Chemie, Mainz
Brühl, C.UK Met Office, Exeter, UK
Butchart, N.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Dameris, MartinDLR
Deushi, M.Met. Res. Institute, Tsukuba, J
Giorgetta, MarcoMPI für Meteorologie, Hamburg
Eyring, V.DLR
Kinnison, DougNCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Mancini, EvaUniv. of L'Aquilla, I
Marsh, D.R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Nagashima, T.Nat. Inst. f. Environmental Studies, J
Pitari, GiovanniUniv. of L'Aquilla, I
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, CND
Rozanov, EugeneETH Zürich, CH
Shibata, K.Met. Res. Institute, Tsukuba, J
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Date:February 2009
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:9
DOI:10.5194/acp-9-1165-2009
Page Range:pp. 1165-1172
Status:Published
Keywords:ozone, stratosphere, CCMs, future evolution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:24 Nov 2010 17:39
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 21:06

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