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Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models

Eyring , V. (2009) Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models. PCMDI AS3 Atmospheric Seminar, 1 October 2009, Livermore, USA.

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Abstract

The talk summarizes recent model evaluation activities within the Chemistry-Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) Activity. A set of performance metrics is applied to stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models (CCMs) that participated in CCMVal-1 to quantify their ability to reproduce key processes relevant for stratospheric ozone. The same metrics are used to assign a quantitative measure of performance (“grade”) to each model-observations comparison shown in Eyring et al. (2006). A wide range of grades is obtained, both for different diagnostics applied to a single model and for the same diagnostic applied to different models, highlighting the wide range in ability of the CCMs to simulate key processes in the stratosphere. No model scores high or low on all tests, but differences in the performance of models can be seen, especially for processes that are mainly determined by transport where several models get low grades on multiple tests. The grades are used to assign relative weights to the CCM projections of 21st century total ozone. For the diagnostics used here there are generally only small differences between weighted and unweighted multi-model mean and variances of total ozone projections. This study provides a framework and benchmarks that will enable quantification of model improvements and assignment of relative weights to the model projections. However, this study also raises several issues with the grading and weighting of CCMs and critical comments as well as follow up studies with CCMVal-2 models are also discussed.

Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Eyring , V.DLR
Date:2009
Status:Published
Keywords:chemistry-climate modelling, model evaluation, performance metrics
Event Title:PCMDI AS3 Atmospheric Seminar
Event Location:Livermore, USA
Event Type:Other
Event Dates:1 October 2009
Organizer:PCMDI
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: PD Dr. habil. Veronika Eyring
Deposited On:03 Dec 2009 18:24
Last Modified:03 Dec 2009 18:24

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