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Predicting global thermospheric neutral density during periods with high geomagnetic activity

Forootan, Ehsan and Farzaneh, Saeed and Kosary, Mona and Borries, Claudia and Kodikara, Timothy and Schumacher, Maike (2023) Predicting global thermospheric neutral density during periods with high geomagnetic activity. Scientific Reports, 13, p. 20322. Nature Publishing Group. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-47440-x. ISSN 2045-2322.

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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-47440-x

Abstract

Estimating global and multi-level Thermosphere Neutral Density (TND) is important for studying coupling processes within the upper atmosphere, and for applications like orbit prediction. Models are applied for predicting TND changes, however, their performance can be improved by accounting for the simplicity of model structure and the sampling limitations of model inputs. In this study, a simultaneous Calibration and Data Assimilation (C/DA) algorithm is applied to integrate freely available CHAMP, GRACE, and Swarm derived TND measurements into the NRLMSISE-00 model. The improved model, called ‘C/DA-NRLMSISE-00’, and its outputs fit to these measured TNDs, are used to produce global TND fields at arbitrary altitudes (with the same vertical coverage as the NRLMSISE-00). Seven periods, between 2003-2020 that are associated with relatively high geomagnetic activity selected to investigate these fields, within which available models represent difficulties to provide reasonable TND estimates. Independent validations are performed with along-track TNDs that were not used within the C/DA framework, as well as with the outputs of other models such as the Jacchia-Bowman 2008 and the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. The numerical results indicate an average 52%, 50%, 56%, 25%, 47%, 54%, and 63% improvement in the Root Mean Squared Errors of the short term TND forecasts of C/DA-NRLMSISE00 compared to the along-track TND estimates of GRACE (2003, altitude 490 km), GRACE (2004, altitude 486 km), CHAMP (2008, altitude 343 km), GOCE (2010, altitude 270 km), Swarm-B (2015, altitude 520 km), Swarm-B (2017, altitude 514 km), and Swarm-B (2020, altitude 512 km), respectively.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/200475/
Document Type:Article
Title:Predicting global thermospheric neutral density during periods with high geomagnetic activity
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Forootan, EhsanUniversity of Aalborg, Department of Planning, Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg, Denmarkhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3055-041XUNSPECIFIED
Farzaneh, SaeedSchool of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran 113654563, IranUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kosary, MonaSchool of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran 113654563, IranUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Borries, ClaudiaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9948-3353UNSPECIFIED
Kodikara, TimothyUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-9966UNSPECIFIED
Schumacher, MaikeUniversity of Aalborg, Department of Planning, Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg, DenmarkUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:November 2023
Journal or Publication Title:Scientific Reports
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:13
DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-47440-x
Page Range:p. 20322
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:2045-2322
Status:Published
Keywords:thermosphere, modelling, data assimilation, calibration, prediction, satellite drag
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Solar-Terrestrial Physics SO, R - Solar-Terrestrial coupling processes, R - Project Space weather research, R - space weather influence
Location: Neustrelitz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics > Solar-Terrestrial Coupling Processes
Deposited By: Borries, Dr. Claudia
Deposited On:05 Dec 2023 11:16
Last Modified:04 Jan 2024 13:26

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