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Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant

Koslow, Wadim and Kühn, Martin Joachim and Binder, Sebastian and Klitz, Margrit and Abele, Daniel and Basermann, Achim and Meyer-Hermann, Michael (2021) Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant. PLoS Computational Biology. Public Library of Science. ISSN 1553-734X. (Submitted)

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Abstract

We analyze the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) under an increasing number of vaccinations in Germany. For the spread of SARS-CoV-2 we employ a SIR-type model that accounts for age-dependence and includes realistic contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of NPIs occurs on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. We account for spatial heterogeneity and commuting activities in between regions in Germany, and the testing of commuters is considered as a further NPI. We include the ongoing vaccination process and analyze the effect of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant, which is considered to be $\MJK{4}0\%-60\%$ more infectious then the currently dominant B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. We explore different opening scenarios under the ongoing vaccination process by assuming that local restrictions are either lifted in early July or August with or without continued wearing of masks and testing. Our results indicate that we can counteract the resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 despite the Delta variant with appropriate timing for the relaxation of NPIs. In all cases, however, school children are hit the hardest.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/146673/
Document Type:Article
Title:Appropriate relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions minimizes the risk of a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections in spite of the Delta variant
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Koslow, WadimWadim.Koslow (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kühn, Martin JoachimMartin.Kuehn (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0906-6984
Binder, SebastianDepartment of Systems Immunology and Braunschweig Integrated Centre of Systems Biology (BRICS), Helmholtz Centre for Infection Researchhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1169-1786
Klitz, MargritMargrit.Klitz (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3657-4180
Abele, DanielDaniel.Abele (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Basermann, AchimAchim.Basermann (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3637-3231
Meyer-Hermann, MichaelDepartment of Systems Immunology and Braunschweig Integrated Centre of Systems Biology (BRICS), Helmholtz Centre for Infection Researchhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4300-2474
Date:November 2021
Journal or Publication Title:PLoS Computational Biology
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Publisher:Public Library of Science
ISSN:1553-734X
Status:Submitted
Keywords:Sars-CoV-2, Covid-19, Delta, Vaccination, variants, non-pharmaceutical interventions, NPIs
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Space System Technology
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R SY - Space System Technology
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Tasks SISTEC
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for Software Technology > High-Performance Computing
Institute for Software Technology
Deposited By: Kühn, Dr. Martin Joachim
Deposited On:07 Dec 2021 10:25
Last Modified:07 Dec 2021 10:25

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