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Traffic emissions 2040 – Impact on air quality in Germany

Matthias, Volker and Bieser, Johannes and Quante, Markus and Seum, Stefan and Winkler, Christian (2019) Traffic emissions 2040 – Impact on air quality in Germany. International Technical Meetings (ITM) on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application, 23.-27.09.2019, Hamburg. (Submitted)

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Traffic is still the most relevant source of NOx emissions and a significant source of particulate matter emissions in Europe. Although emissions have decreased substantially in the last 20-30 years, annual limit values for NO2 are still exceeded in many European cities. In addition, NOx emissions contribute to ozone formation, secondary aerosol particle formation and to reactive nitrogen inputs into sensitive ecosystems. In order to study these important impacts, traffic emissions in Central Europe were calculated, first for Germany, using a sophisticated multi-model chain including transport models, fleet composition models and an updated set of emission factors based on the Handbook of emission factors (HBEFA), version 3.3. The relationship between transport demand and emissions for several road types has then been applied to other Central European countries for calculating road traffic from total traffic emissions in these countries. This allows for the construction of consistent and detailed future scenarios for 2040, taking into account modified transport demand and fleet composition. Three emission scenarios were modelled with the full model chain based on economic and legislative developments that are both, possible and consistent. The traffic emission data was then, together with emission data for all other sectors, fed into the CMAQ chemistry transport model. Concentrations of NO2, O3 and PM2.5 have been calculated for summer and winter in the year 2010 and for three emission scenarios for 2040. All scenarios revealed an emission reduction in the order of 75-80% for NOx in 2040 compared to 2010. Emission reductions for PM2.5 were much lower and there were large differences between the scenarios, depending on the economical development and the policy measures lying behind them. This could also be seen in the CMAQ concentration fields. NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations are expected to decrease largely in Central Europe until 2040 and the transport sector will contribute more than other sectors to the reduction of NO2 concentrations, in particular in cities.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/126815/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Traffic emissions 2040 – Impact on air quality in Germany
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Matthias, VolkerHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, GeesthachtUNSPECIFIED
Bieser, JohannesHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, GeesthachtUNSPECIFIED
Quante, MarkusHelmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, GeesthachtUNSPECIFIED
Seum, Stefanstefan.seum (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Winkler, Christianchristian.winkler (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:Emission modelling, German Transport emissions, Verkehr und Luftschadstoffe
Event Title:International Technical Meetings (ITM) on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application
Event Location:Hamburg
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:23.-27.09.2019
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Institute of Transport Research
Deposited By: Seum, Stefan
Deposited On:06 May 2019 11:56
Last Modified:06 May 2019 11:56

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