Analysing the connection between gross value added of industries and freight transport demand

Kurzfassung

A widely excepted axiom is that transport demand is driven by economic activity. Consequently there is much research on the connection between the economy and freight transport. It is also accepted that highly aggregate indicators like the GDP are not suitable for forecasting purposes of specific commodities. In this paper we analyse the connection between distinct industries and commodities. Four conten-tions are proved for the case of Germany based on publicly available data from 1999 to 2007: (1) gross value added (GVA) is a suitable variable to derive the amount of freight transported in a country; (2) supply and use tables help in identi-fying the economic activities with relevance for the transport demand of specific commodities; (3) the consideration of dynamics in GVA development is para-mount for freight generation, more than the dynamics of the economic structure (i.e. the change in relevant industries for specific commodities); (4) economic ac-tivities on the consumer side of commodities (receiving industry) explain best the freight generation. These four findings are of interest for freight modelling and forecasting. They also contribute to the discussion regarding coupling and decou-pling of transport from economic growth by showing that for a majority of com-modities a close tie between freight transport and economic growth of specific in-dustries exists.