Precipitation in the northern Alpine region: Case-study-type validation of an operational forecast model

Abstract

Quality and limitations of current quantitative precipitation simulations are determined using the Deutschland-Modell of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The model independent validation data comprise the regular rain-gauge network of DWD, taylored composites of an international radar network, Doppler winds from the DLR research radar, and meteorological timeseries at a ground station. Area skill scores are compared for convectively dominated as well as more synoptically forced situations in the northern Alpine region. Inspection of the temporal evolution of the components comprising the atmospheric water budget and of the precipitation partition gives insight in the different nature of excitation mechanisms of heavy precipitation. The simulations are found to exhibit growing potential for follow-on hydrological applications, while a real breakthrough appears to necessitate the coming generation of non-hydrostatic operational forecast models with increased spatial resolution.