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Global-Mean Temperature Change from Shipping toward 2050: Improved Representation of the Indirect Aerosol Effect in Simple Climate Models

Tronstad Lund, Marianne und Eyring, Veronika und Fuglestvedt, Jan und Hendricks, Johannes und Lauer, Axel und Lee, David und Righi, Mattia (2012) Global-Mean Temperature Change from Shipping toward 2050: Improved Representation of the Indirect Aerosol Effect in Simple Climate Models. Environmental Science & Technology, 46, Seiten 8868-8877.

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Offizielle URL: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es301166e

Kurzfassung

We utilize a range of emission scenarios for shipping to determine the induced global-mean radiative forcing and temperature change. Ship emission scenarios consistent with the new regulations on nitrogen oxides (NOx) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) from the International Maritime Organization and two of the Representative Concentration Pathways are used as input to a simple climate model (SCM). Based on a complex aerosol-climate model we develop and test new parametrizations of the indirect aerosol effect (IAE) in the SCM that account for nonlinearities in radiative forcing of ship-induced IAE. We find that shipping causes a net global cooling impact throughout the period 1900−2050 across all parametrizations and scenarios. However, calculated total net global-mean temperature change in 2050 ranges from −0.03[−0.07,−0.002]°C to −0.3[−0.6,−0.2]°C in the A1B scenario. This wide range across parametrizations emphasizes the importance of properly representing the IAE in SCMs and to reflect the uncertainties from complex global models. Furthermore, our calculations show that the future ship-induced temperature response is likely a continued cooling if SO2 and NOx emissions continue to increase due to a strong increase in activity, despite current emission regulations. However, such cooling does not negate the need for continued efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, since residual warming from CO2 is long-lived.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Global-Mean Temperature Change from Shipping toward 2050: Improved Representation of the Indirect Aerosol Effect in Simple Climate Models
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Tronstad Lund, Marianne CICERO, Oslo, N
Eyring, Veronika DLR
Fuglestvedt, Jan CICERO, Oslo, N
Hendricks, Johannes DLR
Lauer, Axel Univ. of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA
Lee, David Manchester Metropolitan Univ., UK
Righi, Mattia DLR
Datum:2012
Erschienen in:Environmental Science & Technology
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:46
Seitenbereich:Seiten 8868-8877
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:ship emissions, climate change, aerosols, climate models
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Hinterlegt von: Jana Freund
Hinterlegt am:24 Sep 2012 14:40
Letzte Änderung:26 Mär 2013 13:42

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