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Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions

Schaefer, Martin (2012) Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions. Dissertation. DLR-Forschungsbericht. DLR-FB--2012-08, 235 S.

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Abstract

This study describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects.

Document Type:Monograph (DLR-Forschungsbericht, Dissertation)
Title:Development of a Forecast Model for Global Air Traffic Emissions
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Schaefer, Martinmartin.schaefer@dlr.de
Date:14 August 2012
Number of Pages:235
ISSN:1434-8454
Status:Published
Keywords:Aviation, air traffic, emissions, emissions forecast, fuel consumption, nitric oxides, NOx, soot, black carbon, Luftfahrt, Luftverkehr, Emissionen, Emissionsprognose, Treibstoffverbrauch, Stickoxide, Ruß
Institution:Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt
Department:Institut für Antriebstechnik
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Integrierte Modellierung des Luftverkehrssystems (old)
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Propulsion Technology > Engine
Deposited By: Martin Schaefer
Deposited On:22 Aug 2012 11:19
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 21:45

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