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The 2009-�2010 Arctic stratospheric winter -� general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model

Dörnbrack, A. and Pitts, M.C. and Poole, L.R. and Orsolini, Y.J. and Nishii, K. and Nakamura, H. (2012) The 2009-�2010 Arctic stratospheric winter -� general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, pp. 3659-3675. DOI: 10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012.

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Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/12/3659/2012/

Abstract

The relatively warm 2009�2010 Arctic winter was an exceptional one as the North Atlantic Oscillation index attained persistent extreme negative values. Here, selected aspects of the Arctic stratosphere during this winter inspired by the analysis of the international field experiment RECONCILE are presented. First of all, and as a kind of reference, the evolution of the polar vortex in its different phases is documented. Special emphasis is put on explaining the formation of the exceptionally cold vortex in mid winter after a sequence of stratospheric disturbances which were caused by upward propagating planetary waves. A major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) occurring near the end of January 2010 concluded the anomalous cold vortex period. Wave ice polar stratospheric clouds were frequently observed by spaceborne remote-sensing instruments over the Arctic during the cold period in January 2010. Here, one such case observed over Greenland is analysed in more detail and an attempt is made to correlate flow information of an operational numerical weather prediction model to the magnitude of the mountain-wave induced temperature fluctuations. Finally, it is shown that the forecasts of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system for the onset of the major SSW were very skilful and the ensemble spread was very small. However, the ensemble spread increased dramatically after the major SSW, displaying the strong non-linearity and internal variability involved in the SSW event.

Document Type:Article
Title:The 2009-�2010 Arctic stratospheric winter -� general evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Dörnbrack, A.UNSPECIFIED
Pitts, M.C.NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
Poole, L.R.SSAI, Hampton, VA, USA
Orsolini, Y.J.NILU, Kjeller, N
Nishii, K.Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, J
Nakamura, H.Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, J
Date:2012
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:12
DOI:10.5194/acp-12-3659-2012
Page Range:pp. 3659-3675
Status:Published
Keywords:North Atlantic Oscillation index, SSW
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics and Traffic Meteorology
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:01 Aug 2012 11:38
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 21:44

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