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Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption

Webster, H.N. und Thomson, D.J. und Johnson, B.T. und Heard, I.P.C. und Turnbull, K. und Marenco, F. und Kristiansen, N.I. und Dorsey, J. und Minikin, Andreas und Weinzierl, Bernadett und Schumann, U. und Sparks, R.S.J. und Loughlin, S.C. und Hort, M.C. und Leadbetter, S.J. und Devenish, B.J. und Manning, A.J. und Witham, C.S. und Haywood, J.M. und Golding, Brian W. (2012) Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 117 (D00U08), Seiten 1-17. DOI: 10.1029/2011JD016790. ISSN 0148-0227.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/jd1202/2011JD016790/2011JD016790.pdf

Kurzfassung

During the 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, improvements were made to the modeling procedure at the Met Office, UK, enabling peak ash concentrations within the volcanic cloud to be estimated. In this paper we describe the ash concentration forecasting method, its rationale and how it evolved over time in response to new information and user requirements. The change from solely forecasting regions of ash to also estimating peak ash concentrations required consideration of volcanic ash emission rates, the fraction of ash surviving near-source fall-out, and the relationship between predicted mean and local peak ash concentrations unresolved by the model. To validate the modeling procedure, predicted peak ash concentrations are compared against observations obtained by ground-based and research aircraft instrumentation. This comparison between modeled and observed peak concentrations highlights the many sources of error and the uncertainties involved. Despite the challenges of predicting ash concentrations, the ash forecasting method employed here is found to give useful guidance on likely ash concentrations. Predicted peak ash concentrations lie within about one and a half orders of magnitude of the observed peak concentrations. A significant improvement in the agreement between modeled and observed values is seen if a buffer zone, accounting for positional errors in the predicted ash cloud, is used. Sensitivity of the predicted ash concentrations to the source properties (e.g., the plume height and the vertical distribution of ash at the source) is assessed and in some cases, seemingly minor uncertainties in the source specification have a large effect on predicted ash concentrations.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Webster, H.N.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Thomson, D.J.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Johnson, B.T.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Heard, I.P.C.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Turnbull, K.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Marenco, F.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Kristiansen, N.I.NILU, Kjeller, N
Dorsey, J.Univ. of Manchester, UK
Minikin, AndreasDLR, IPA
Weinzierl, BernadettDLR, IPA
Schumann, U.DLR, IPA
Sparks, R.S.J.Univ. of Bristol, UK
Loughlin, S.C.British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, UK
Hort, M.C.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Leadbetter, S.J.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Devenish, B.J.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Manning, A.J.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Witham, C.S.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Haywood, J.M.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Golding, Brian W.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Datum:2012
Erschienen in:Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:117
DOI :10.1029/2011JD016790
Seitenbereich:Seiten 1-17
ISSN:0148-0227
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Eyjafjallajökull, Eyjafjöll, Eyjafjalla, volcanic ash, forecast, ash concentration, ash plume
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Luftfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:ATM und Flugbetrieb (alt)
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Luftfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:L AO - Luftverkehrsmanagement und Flugbetrieb
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):L - Klima, Wetter und Umwelt (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Atmosphärische Spurenstoffe
Hinterlegt von: Jana Freund
Hinterlegt am:30 Jan 2012 15:20
Letzte Änderung:13 Nov 2014 15:01

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