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Spatio-Temporal Population Distribution and Evacuation Modeling for Improving Tsunami Risk Assessment in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area

Freire, Sergio und Aubrecht, Christoph und Wegscheider, Stephanie (2011) Spatio-Temporal Population Distribution and Evacuation Modeling for Improving Tsunami Risk Assessment in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. Gi4DM 2011, 3.-8. Mai 2011, Antalya, Türkei.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.isprs.org/proceedings/2011/Gi4DM/PDF/OP32.pdf


Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to significant risk of tsunami, and was hit by a very destructive earthquake-triggered tsunami during daytime in 1755. The Regional Plan for Territorial Management for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (PROT), under discussion, includes a tsunami hazard map, showing that significant urbanized areas may be at risk of inundation. In order to consider the time dependence of population exposure to tsunami threats, we map and analyze the spatio-temporal population distribution in the daily cycle in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area. High-resolution day- and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using ‘intelligent dasymetric mapping’, i.e. using areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution, and empirical parameters used for interpolation are obtained from a previous modeling effort of part of the study area. In combination with the tsunami hazard map, information on infrastructure, land use and terrain slope, the modeled population distribution is used to assess people’s evacuation times, applying a GIS-based evacuation modeling approach to the city of Lisbon. The detailed spatio-temporal population exposure assessment allows producing both day- and nighttime evacuation time maps, which provide valuable input for evacuation planning and management. Results show that a significant amount of population is potentially at risk, and its numbers increase dramatically from nighttime to daytime, especially in the zones of high susceptibility. Also, full evacuation can be problematic in the daytime period, even if initiated immediately after a major earthquake. The presented approach is considered to greatly improve risk mapping and assessment and can benefit all phases of the disaster management process.

Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:Spatio-Temporal Population Distribution and Evacuation Modeling for Improving Tsunami Risk Assessment in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iD
Freire, SergioNew University of LisbonNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Aubrecht, ChristophAIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbHNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Wegscheider, Stephaniestephanie.wegscheider@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:Mai 2011
Referierte Publikation:Nein
In Open Access:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Stichwörter:Tsunami, Risk mapping, Population exposure, Dasymetric mapping, Lisbon
Veranstaltungstitel:Gi4DM 2011
Veranstaltungsort:Antalya, Türkei
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsdatum:3.-8. Mai 2011
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Raumfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Raumfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):R - Vorhaben Zivile Kriseninformation und Georisiken (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Deutsches Fernerkundungsdatenzentrum > Zivile Kriseninformation und Georisiken
Hinterlegt von: Wegscheider, Stephanie
Hinterlegt am:30 Jan 2012 09:21
Letzte Änderung:30 Jan 2012 09:21

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