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Verification of direct normal irradiance foreasts for the concentrating solar thermal power plant Andasol-3 location

Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion and Pulvermüller, B. (2011) Verification of direct normal irradiance foreasts for the concentrating solar thermal power plant Andasol-3 location. In: Proceedings. SolarPaces 2011, 20.-23. September 2011, Granada, Spanien.

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Abstract

The successful integration of solar electricity from concentrating solar power plants into the existing electricity supply requires an electricity production forecast for 48 hours, while any improved surface irradiance forecast over the next upcoming hours is relevant for an optimized operation of the power plant. In order to quantify the quality of today’s state of the art, meteorological ground-based measurements are obtained from the Andasol location (near Guadix, Spain). A verification is performed for commercially available DNI forecasts based on Model Output Statistics (MOS) and for a data set based on the ECMWF IFS numerical weather prediction model. Generally, the ECMWF day ahead forecast performs better than the MOS-based approaches at the Andasol location for the test years of 2007 to 2009. Additionally, a nowcasting scheme based on Meteosat Second Generation cloud imagery and cloud movement tracking is currently under development. Preliminary results show a positive impact of up to 8 hours depending of the time of the day and a RMSD reduction of up to 10%. This illustrates the potential of the further development of a satellite-based nowcasting scheme.

Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:Verification of direct normal irradiance foreasts for the concentrating solar thermal power plant Andasol-3 location
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marionmarion.schroedter-homscheidt@dlr.de
Pulvermüller, B.Solar Millennium AG
Date:2011
Journal or Publication Title:Proceedings
Refereed publication:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:solar irradiance, forecasting, numerical weather prediction, model output statistics, satellite, cloud motion vectors
Event Title:SolarPaces 2011
Event Location:Granada, Spanien
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:20.-23. September 2011
Organizer:SolarPaces, IEA
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Atmosphere
Deposited By: Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt
Deposited On:24 Jan 2012 12:44
Last Modified:31 Jul 2013 13:08

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