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Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature

Gillett, N.P. and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Eyring, V. and Garcia, R. and Karpechko, A.Yu. and McLinden, C.A. and Morgenstern, O. and Plummer, D.A. and Pyle, J.A. and Rozanov, E. and Scinocca, J. and Shibata, K. (2011) Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, pp. 599-609. DOI: 10.5194/acp-11-599-2011.

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/599/2011/


Three recently-completed sets of simulations of multiple chemistry-climate models with greenhouse gases only, with all anthropogenic forcings, and with anthropogenic and natural forcings, allow the causes of observed stratospheric changes to be quantitatively assessed using detection and attribution techniques. The total column ozone response to halogenated ozone depleting substances and to natural forcings is detectable in observations, but the total column ozone response to greenhouse gas changes is not separately detectable. In the middle and upper stratosphere, simulated and observed SBUV/SAGE ozone changes are broadly consistent, and separate anthropogenic and natural responses are detectable in observations. The influence of ozone depleting substances and natural forcings can also be detected separately in observed lower stratospheric temperature, and the magnitudes of the simulated and observed responses to these forcings and to greenhouse gas changes are found to be consistent. In the mid and upper stratosphere the simulated natural and combined anthropogenic responses are detectable and consistent with observations, but the influences of greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances could not be separately detected in our analysis.

Document Type:Article
Title:Attribution of observed changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Gillett, N.P.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CND
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Bekki, S.Institut Pierre-Simone Laplace, Paris, F
Braesicke, P.Univ. of Cambridge, UK
Eyring, V.DLR
Garcia, R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Karpechko, A.Yu.Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki, FIN
McLinden, C.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CND
Morgenstern, O.Univ. of Cambridge, UK
Plummer, D.A.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CND
Pyle, J.A.Univ. of Cambridge, UK
Rozanov, E.pmod, Davos, CH
Scinocca, J.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, BC, CND
Shibata, K.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 599-609
Keywords:stratospheric ozone, ozone trends, attribution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:17 Nov 2011 17:32
Last Modified:07 Feb 2013 20:54

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