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Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere

Butchart, Neal and Charlton-Perez, A.J. and Cionni, Irene and Haynes, P.H. and Hardiman, S.C. and Krüger, K. and Kushner, P. and Newman, P.A. and Osprey, S.M. and Perlwitz, J. and Sigmond, M. and Wang, L. and et, al. and Dameris, Martin and Eyring, Veronika and Garny, Hella and Jöckel, Patrick (2011) Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116 (D05102), pp. 1-21. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014995.

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Official URL: http://elib.dlr.de/70088/1/Butchart_et_al_2011.pdf

Abstract

The stratospheric climate and variability from simulations of sixteen chemistryclimate models is evaluated. On average the polar night jet is well reproduced though its variability is less well reproduced with a large spread between models. Polar temperature biases are less than 5 K except in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) lower stratosphere in spring. The accumulated area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation is accurately reproduced for the Antarctic but underestimated for the Arctic. The shape and position of the polar vortex is well simulated, as is the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere. There is a wide model spread in the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warnings (SSWs), late biases in the breakup of the SH vortex, and a weak annual cycle in the zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere. Quantitatively, �metrics� indicate a wide spread in model performance for most diagnostics with systematic biases in many, and poorer performance in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Correlations were found in the SH between errors in the final warming, polar temperatures, the leading mode of variability, and jet strength, and in the NH between errors in polar temperatures, frequency of major SSWs, and jet strength. Models with a stronger QBO have stronger tropical upwelling and a colder NH vortex. Both the qualitative and quantitative analysis indicate a number of common and long�standing model problems, particularly related to the simulation of the SH and stratospheric variability.

Document Type:Article
Title:Multimodel climate and variability of the stratosphere
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Butchart, NealMet Office Exeter, UK
Charlton-Perez, A.J.Univ. Reading, UK
Cionni, IreneDLR-IPA
Haynes, P.H.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Hardiman, S.C.Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Krüger, K.Kiel Univ., Kiel
Kushner, P.Univ. of Toronto, CND
Newman, P.A.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Osprey, S.M.Univ. of Oxford, Oxford, UK
Perlwitz, J.Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Sigmond, M.Univ. of Toronto, CND
Wang, L.Univ. of Toronto, CND
et, al.UNSPECIFIED
Dameris, MartinDLR-IPA
Eyring, VeronikaDLR-IPA
Garny, HellaDLR-IPA
Jöckel, PatrickMPI-C Mainz/DLR-IPA
Date:2011
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:116
DOI:10.1029/2010JD014995
Page Range:pp. 1-21
Status:Published
Keywords:polar night jet; stratospheric warmings; quasi-biennial oscillation;
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Martin Dameris
Deposited On:20 Jun 2011 16:04
Last Modified:23 Jan 2014 11:36

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