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Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand

Mehlin, Markus und Klein-Hitpaß, Anne und Cyganski, Rita (2011) Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand. In: Demography and Infrastructure. National and Regional Aspects of Demographic Change Environment & Policy, 51. Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York. Seiten 95-110. ISBN 978-94-007-0457-2. ISSN 1383-5130

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Offizielle URL: http://www.springer.com/de/book/9789400704572


Demographic change in Germany will lead to a remarkable change in the composition of the population, particulary in terms of the ageing of society with the prospect of a population decrease. These factors are the main determinants for future travel demand. This chapter describes the procedere of modelling transport for 2030 and illustrates the results with regard to the infrastructure. The findings of the Rostock Center serve as the main basis for the data in the transport model, belonging to the family of microscopic activity-based demand models. The future passenger transport demand will decrease in most areas. The workload of the road infrastructure will decrease correspondingly. Differences of the impact between the two demographic scenarios are low. Findings show significant spatial differeces. The western part of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, will experience some trip increases, but most of the regions will face a decrease in transport demand. Public transport in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will not gain any more passengers in the future. We therefore conclude that the planning process for infrastructure should include a proper approach that assesses the options of disassembling streets and restructuring them. Criteria for making this decision should not be the workload of the road, but rather accessibility questions. Future land use management will also play an important role.

Dokumentart:Beitrag in einem Lehr- oder Fachbuch
Titel:Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iD
Mehlin, Markusmarkus.mehlin@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Cyganski, Ritarita.cyganski@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Erschienen in:Demography and Infrastructure. National and Regional Aspects of Demographic Change
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
DOI :10.1007/978-94-007-0458-9
Seitenbereich:Seiten 95-110
HerausgeberInstitution und/oder E-Mail-Adresse der Herausgeber
Dr. Kronenberg, TobiasForschungszentrum Jülich
Dr. Kuckshinrichs, WilhelmForschungszentrum Jülich
Verlag:Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York
Name der Reihe:Environment & Policy
Stichwörter:passenger transport demand, travel behaviour, activity-based demand modelling, trip generation, demographic change
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:keine Zuordnung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V - keine Zuordnung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - keine Zuordnung
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrsforschung
Hinterlegt von: George, Michaela
Hinterlegt am:01 Aug 2011 14:46
Letzte Änderung:09 Feb 2018 18:06

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