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Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand

Mehlin, Markus and Klein-Hitpaß, Anne and Cyganski, Rita (2011) Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand. In: ENVIRONMENT & POLICY Demography and Infrastructure, National and Regional Aspects of Demographic Change, 51 (DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-0458-9). Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York. pp. 95-110. ISBN 978-94-007-0457-2. ISSN 1383-5130

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Demographic change in Germany will lead to a remarkable change in the composition of the population, particulary in terms of the ageing of society with the prospect of a population decrease. These factors are the main determinants for future travel demand. This chapter describes the procedere of modelling transport for 2030 and illustrates the results with regard to the infrastructure. The findings of the Rostock Center serve as the main basis for the data in the transport model, belonging to the family of microscopic activity-based demand models. The future passenger transport demand will decrease in most areas. The workload of the road infrastructure will decrease correspondingly. Differences of the impact between the two demographic scenarios are low. Findings show significant spatial differeces. The western part of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, will experience some trip increases, but most of the regions will face a decrease in transport demand. Public transport in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will not gain any more passengers in the future. We therefore conclude that the planning process for infrastructure should include a proper approach that assesses the options of disassembling streets and restructuring them. Criteria for making this decision should not be the workload of the road, but rather accessibility questions. Future land use management will also play an important role.

Document Type:Book Section
Title:Demographic Effects on Passenger Transport Demand
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Mehlin, Markusmarkus.mehlin@dlr.de
Klein-Hitpaß, AnneUNSPECIFIED
Cyganski, Ritarita.cyganski@dlr.de
Journal or Publication Title:ENVIRONMENT & POLICY
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Page Range:pp. 95-110
Dr. Kronenberg, TobiasForschungszentrum Jülich
Dr. Kuckshinrichs, WilhelmForschungszentrum Jülich
Publisher:Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York
Series Name:Demography and Infrastructure, National and Regional Aspects of Demographic Change
Keywords:passenger transport demand, travel behaviour, activity-based demand modelling, trip generation, demographic change
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:other
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V - no assignement
DLR - Research theme (Project):V -- no assignement
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research
Deposited By: Michaela George
Deposited On:01 Aug 2011 14:46
Last Modified:21 Sep 2012 11:50

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