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Policy driven demand for sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles in Germany

Trommer, Stefan and Kihm, Alexander and Hebes, Paul and Mehlin, Markus (2010) Policy driven demand for sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles in Germany. European Transport Conference, 11.-13. Okt. 2010, Glasgow, Großbritannien.

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Abstract

While technology issues are increasingly overcoming, the economic viability of electric vehicles is remaining constrained by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. However, first automakers present their Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) or at least pronounce them for the near future. Hence, there is an emerging need for vehicle manufacturers, practitioners and policy to estimate the particular demand for partly and fully electrified drive trains under the current and probable future economic and regulatory conditions. In our paper we analyze the possible German car market’s development towards electric mobility for the two key technologies, PHEV and BEV. A multi-step methodology using technical, social and economic constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory is developed to derive demand for electric vehicles between 2015 and 2030. A scenario approach is used to demonstrate the impact of several policy approaches on demand for cars with electric drive trains in Germany. The results can provide valuable insights for policy design as well as for transport and environmental modelling at the same time.

Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech, Paper)
Title:Policy driven demand for sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and battery-electric vehicles in Germany
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Trommer, Stefanstefan.trommer@dlr.de
Kihm, Alexanderalexander.kihm@dlr.de
Hebes, Paulpaul.hebes@dlr.de
Mehlin, Markusmarkus.mehlin@dlr.de
Date:October 2010
Refereed publication:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Battery Electric Vehicles, Elekromobilität,
Event Title:European Transport Conference
Event Location:Glasgow, Großbritannien
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:11.-13. Okt. 2010
Organizer:Association for European Transport
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - VEU (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Deposited By: Stefan Trommer
Deposited On:05 Jan 2011 15:13
Last Modified:21 Sep 2012 11:56

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