Oman, L.D. and Plummer, D.A. and Waugh, D.W. and Austin, J. and Scinocca, J.F. and Douglass, A.R. and Salawitch, R.J. and Canty, T. and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Butchart, N. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Cugnet, D. and Dhomse, S. and Eyring, V. and Frith, S. and Hardiman, S.C. and Kinnison, D.E. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Mancini, E. and Marchand, M. and Michou, M. and Morgenstern, O. and Nakamura, T. and Nielsen, J.E. and Olivié, D. and Pitari, G. and Pyle, J. and Rozanov, E. and Shepherd, T.G. and Shibata, K. and Stolarski, R.S. and Teyssèdre, H. and Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. and Ziemke, J.R. (2010) Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (D24306), pp. 1-21. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014362 .
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Official URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010JD014362.shtml
The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.
|Title:||Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century|
|Journal or Publication Title:||Journal of Geophysical Research|
|In Open Access:||No|
|In ISI Web of Science:||Yes|
|Page Range:||pp. 1-21|
|Keywords:||ozone, stratosphere, chemistry-climate models, future evolution|
|HGF - Research field:||Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)|
|HGF - Program:||Space (old)|
|HGF - Program Themes:||W EO - Erdbeobachtung|
|DLR - Research area:||Space|
|DLR - Program:||W EO - Erdbeobachtung|
|DLR - Research theme (Project):||W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)|
|Institutes and Institutions:||Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics|
|Deposited By:||Jana Freund|
|Deposited On:||05 Jan 2011 13:29|
|Last Modified:||23 Jan 2014 11:36|
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