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Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century

Oman, L.D. and Plummer, D.A. and Waugh, D.W. and Austin, J. and Scinocca, J.F. and Douglass, A.R. and Salawitch, R.J. and Canty, T. and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Butchart, N. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Cugnet, D. and Dhomse, S. and Eyring, V. and Frith, S. and Hardiman, S.C. and Kinnison, D.E. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Mancini, E. and Marchand, M. and Michou, M. and Morgenstern, O. and Nakamura, T. and Nielsen, J.E. and Olivié, D. and Pitari, G. and Pyle, J. and Rozanov, E. and Shepherd, T.G. and Shibata, K. and Stolarski, R.S. and Teyssèdre, H. and Tian, W. and Yamashita, Y. and Ziemke, J.R. (2010) Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (D24306), pp. 1-21. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014362 .

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010JD014362.shtml

Abstract

The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models.

Document Type:Article
Title:Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Oman, L.D.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Plummer, D.A.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, CND
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MY, USA
Austin, J.NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Scinocca, J.F.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, CND
Douglass, A.R.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Salawitch, R.J.Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC, CND
Canty, T.Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Bekki, S.UPMC, Paris, F
Braesicke, P.Univ. of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Butchart, N.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Cugnet, D.UPMC, Paris, F
Dhomse, S.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Eyring, V.DLR
Frith, S.UNSPECIFIED
Hardiman, S.C.UNSPECIFIED
Kinnison, D.E.UNSPECIFIED
Lamarque, J.-F.UNSPECIFIED
Mancini, E.UNSPECIFIED
Marchand, M.UNSPECIFIED
Michou, M.UNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, O.UNSPECIFIED
Nakamura, T.UNSPECIFIED
Nielsen, J.E.UNSPECIFIED
Olivié, D.UNSPECIFIED
Pitari, G.UNSPECIFIED
Pyle, J.UNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.UNSPECIFIED
Shepherd, T.G.UNSPECIFIED
Shibata, K.UNSPECIFIED
Stolarski, R.S.UNSPECIFIED
Teyssèdre, H.UNSPECIFIED
Tian, W.UNSPECIFIED
Yamashita, Y.UNSPECIFIED
Ziemke, J.R.UNSPECIFIED
Date:February 2010
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:115
DOI:10.1029/2010JD014362
Page Range:pp. 1-21
Status:Published
Keywords:ozone, stratosphere, chemistry-climate models, future evolution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:05 Jan 2011 13:29
Last Modified:23 Jan 2014 11:36

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