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Sensitivity of contrail coverage and contrail radiative forcing to selected key parameters

Frömming, Christine und Ponater, Michael und Burkhardt, Ulrike und Stenke, Andrea und Pechtl, Susanne und Sausen, Robert (2011) Sensitivity of contrail coverage and contrail radiative forcing to selected key parameters. Atmospheric Environment, 45, Seiten 1483-1490. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.11.033.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=PublicationURL&_tockey=%23TOC%236055%232011%23999549992%232886831%23FLA%23&_cdi=6055&_pubType=J&_auth=y&_acct=C000007338&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=100058&md5=1b30d9822e83fa62134d3d2458220ae3


Estimates of global mean radiative forcing of line-shaped contrails are associated with a high level of uncertainty. Recent estimates for present day air traffic range from 5.4 mW/m2 to 25.6 mW/m2. The aim of this research paper is to systematically study the sensitivity of contrail radiative forcing to selected key parameters and to highlight the most important factors for this large uncertainty range, while employing an improved version of the ECHAM climate model. The dominating parameters on contrail radiative forcing are found to be the detection threshold used for calibrating contrail coverage to observations, and the mean optical depth. Assuming a detection threshold of 0.05 instead of 0.02 yields an increase of the total coverage, resulting in a 146 % increase of global mean contrail radiative forcing. Employing a globally constant optical depth of up to 0.3, increases the net radiative forcing by 140 % over the reference case with a mean optical depth of 0.08. An upgraded parameterisation of potential contrail coverage yields a significantly larger amount of tropical contrails, increasing the contrail radiative forcing by 53 %. The calibration to an alternative observation region along with the assumption of a higher visibility threshold yields an increase of the radiative forcing by 46 %. Moderate sensitivity of global contrail radiative forcing (~15 %) is found for an improvement of model climate and for changes in particle shape. The air traffic inventory, air traffic density parameter, and the diurnal variation of air traffic have only a small effect on global and annual mean contrail radiative forcing, but their influence on regional and seasonal contrail radiative forcing may nevertheless be important.

Titel:Sensitivity of contrail coverage and contrail radiative forcing to selected key parameters
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Frömming, Christinechristine.froemming@dlr.de
Ponater, Michaelmichael.ponater@dlr.de
Burkhardt, Ulrikeulrike.burkhardt@dlr.de
Stenke, Andreaandrea.stenke@env.ethz.ch
Pechtl, Susannesusanne.pechtl@gmx.de
Sausen, Robertrobert.sausen@dlr.de
Erschienen in:Atmospheric Environment
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
DOI :10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.11.033
Seitenbereich:Seiten 1483-1490
Stichwörter:air traffic, aviation, climate impact, contrail coverage, radiative forcing, optical depth
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Luftfahrt, Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:ATM und Flugbetrieb, Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Luftfahrt, Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:L AO - Luftverkehrsmanagement und Flugbetrieb, V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):L - Klima, Wetter und Umwelt, V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Dynamik der Atmosphäre
Hinterlegt von: Dr. Christine Frömming
Hinterlegt am:06 Dez 2010 16:23
Letzte Änderung:12 Dez 2013 21:08

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