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Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

Mhyre, Gunnar and Shine, K.P. and Rädel, G. and Gauss, M. and Isaksen, I.S.A. and Tang, Q. and Prather, M.J. and Williams, J.E. and van Velthoven, P. and Dessens, O. and Kofi, B. and Szopa, S. and Hoor, P. and Grewe, Volker and Borken-Kleefeld, J. and Berntsen, T.K. and Fuglestvedt, J.S. (2011) Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector. Atmospheric Environment, 45, pp. 387-394. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.10.001.

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Abstract

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31 mW/m2) compared to SHIP (24 mW/m2) and AIR (17 mW/m2) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and CH4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (16(+/-13) (one standard deviation) mW/m2) and AIR (6(+/-5) mW/m2) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(+/-10) mW/m2) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

Document Type:Article
Title:Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Mhyre, GunnarCICERO, Oslo, N
Shine, K.P.Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK
Rädel, G.Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK
Gauss, M.Univ. of Oslo, N
Isaksen, I.S.A.CICERO, Oslo, N
Tang, Q.Earth System Science Dept., UC Irvine, CA, USA
Prather, M.J.Earth System Science Dept., UC Irvine, CA, USA
Williams, J.E.Royal Netherlands Meteorol. Inst., NL
van Velthoven, P.Royal Netherlands Meteorol. Inst., NL
Dessens, O.Centre for Atmos. Science, Cambridge, UK
Kofi, B.LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, F
Szopa, S.LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, F
Hoor, P.Univ. Mainz
Grewe, Volkervolker.grewe@dlr.de
Borken-Kleefeld, J.DLR
Berntsen, T.K.CICERO, Oslo, N
Fuglestvedt, J.S.CICERO, Oslo, N
Date:January 2011
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Environment
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:45
DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.10.001
Page Range:pp. 387-394
Status:Published
Keywords:Radiative forcing GWP GTP Shipping Aviation Road transport
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics, Transport
HGF - Program Themes:ATM and Operation, Transport System
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics, Transport
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation, V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment, V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Dr.rer.nat. Volker Grewe
Deposited On:06 Dec 2010 16:13
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 21:08

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