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The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC

Chou, Kun-Hsuan and Wu, Chun-Chieh and Lin, Po-Hsiung and Aberson, Sim and Weissmann, Martin and Harnisch, Florian and Nakazawa, Tetsuo (2011) The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC. Monthly Weather Review, 139, pp. 1728-1743. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3582.1.

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Official URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3582.1

Abstract

The typhoon surveillance program DOTSTAR (Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region) has been conducted since 2003 to obtain dropwindsonde observations around tropical cyclones near Taiwan. In addition, an international field project (THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign, T-PARC) in which dropwindsonde observations were obtained by both surveillance and reconnaissance flights, was conducted in summer 2008 in the same region. In this study, the impact of the dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is investigated for DOTSTAR (2003-2009) and T-PARC (2008) experiments. Two operational global models from NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) are used to evaluate the impact of dropwindsonde data. In addition, the impact on the two-model mean is assessed. The impact of dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is different in the NCEP and ECMWF model systems. Using the NCEP system, the assimilation of dropwindsonde data leads to improvements in 1- to 5-day track forecasts in about 60% of the cases. The differences between track forecasts with and without the dropwindsonde data is generally larger for cases in which the data improved the forecasts than in cases in which the forecasts were degraded. Overall, the mean 1- to 5-day track forecast error is reduced by about 10-20% for both DOTSTAR and T-PARC cases in the NCEP system. In the ECMWF system, the impact is not as beneficial as in the NCEP system, likely due to more extensive use of satellite data and more complex data assimilation used in the former, leading to better performance even without dropwnidsonde data. The stronger impacts of the dropwindsonde data are revealed for the 3- to 5-day forecast in the two-model mean of the NCEP and ECMWF systems than for each individual model.

Document Type:Article
Title:The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Chou, Kun-HsuanChinese Culture Univ., Taipei, Taiwan
Wu, Chun-ChiehNational Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan
Lin, Po-HsiungNational Taiwan Univ., Taipei, Taiwan
Aberson, SimNOAA/AOML, Miami, FL, USA
Weissmann, MartinMartin.Weissmann@dlr.de
Harnisch, FlorianFlorian.Harnisch@dlr.de
Nakazawa, TetsuoJMA, Tsukuba, J
Date:2011
Journal or Publication Title:Monthly Weather Review
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:139
DOI:10.1175/2010MWR3582.1
Page Range:pp. 1728-1743
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
Status:Published
Keywords:Dropsonde, DOTSTAR
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben ADM (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Lidar
Deposited By: Florian Harnisch
Deposited On:06 Dec 2010 15:07
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 21:07

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