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Forecasting summer convection over the Black Forest: A case study from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) experiment

Richard, Evelyne und Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre und Flamant, Cyrille und Champollion, Cedric und Hagen, Martin und Schmidt, Kersten und Kiemle, Christoph und Corsmeier, Ulrich und Barthlotte, C. und Di Girolamof, P. (2011) Forecasting summer convection over the Black Forest: A case study from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) experiment. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137, Seiten 101-117. DOI: 10.1002/qj.710.

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Offizielle URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.710/abstract

Kurzfassung

In the mid-afternoon of 15th July 2007, during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), in a very warm and dry environment, an isolated, short-lived, deep convective system developed over the southern Black-Forest. Most of the high-resolution, convection-permitting models involved in COPS were unable to capture this event whereas the Meso-NH forecast was quite skilful. To further assess the Meso-NH performance, the model results were carefully checked against the various and numerous COPS observations. In full agreement with clear-air radar observations, model results underlined the triggering role of a low-level level convergence line, which developed in the lee of the Feldberg. The main departure from the observations was found to be in the low-level moisture fields, which appeared significantly moister in the model than in the observations and also slightly moister than in the other models. Sensitivity studies showed that this departure from the observations was strongly controlled by the initial surface moisture conditions. When the surface moisture was reduced by 20% or replaced by the value derived from a different analysis, the evolution of the planetary boundary layer was more accurately represented while the storm evolution was still correctly captured. These results demonstate that the quality of the initial forecast cannot be ascribed to the moist bias of the model. It could therefore be hypothesized that the key parameters for a satisfactory forecast of this event lay more in the ability of the model to accurately reproduce the dynamical forcing than in the characteristics of the air-mass instability.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Forecasting summer convection over the Black Forest: A case study from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) experiment
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-Adresse der Autoren
Richard, EvelyneCNRS, F
Chaboureau, Jean-PierreCNRS, F
Flamant, CyrilleCNRS, F
Champollion, CedricCNRS, F
Hagen, MartinDLR IPA
Schmidt, KerstenDLR IPA
Kiemle, ChristophDLR IPA
Corsmeier, UlrichKIT IMK
Barthlotte, C.KIT IMK
Di Girolamof, P.Uni degli Studi della Basilicata, Potenza, I
Datum:2011
Erschienen in:Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:137
DOI :10.1002/qj.710
Seitenbereich:Seiten 101-117
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:orography; surface moisture; water vapour
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Raumfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Raumfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Lidar
Hinterlegt von: Dr.rer.nat. Christoph Kiemle
Hinterlegt am:06 Dez 2010 14:44
Letzte Änderung:12 Dez 2013 21:06

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