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Forecasting summer convection over the Black Forest: A case study from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) experiment

Richard, Evelyne and Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre and Flamant, Cyrille and Champollion, Cedric and Hagen, Martin and Schmidt, Kersten and Kiemle, Christoph and Corsmeier, Ulrich and Barthlotte, C. and Di Girolamof, P. (2011) Forecasting summer convection over the Black Forest: A case study from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) experiment. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137, pp. 101-117. DOI: 10.1002/qj.710.

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Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.710/abstract

Abstract

In the mid-afternoon of 15th July 2007, during the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS), in a very warm and dry environment, an isolated, short-lived, deep convective system developed over the southern Black-Forest. Most of the high-resolution, convection-permitting models involved in COPS were unable to capture this event whereas the Meso-NH forecast was quite skilful. To further assess the Meso-NH performance, the model results were carefully checked against the various and numerous COPS observations. In full agreement with clear-air radar observations, model results underlined the triggering role of a low-level level convergence line, which developed in the lee of the Feldberg. The main departure from the observations was found to be in the low-level moisture fields, which appeared significantly moister in the model than in the observations and also slightly moister than in the other models. Sensitivity studies showed that this departure from the observations was strongly controlled by the initial surface moisture conditions. When the surface moisture was reduced by 20% or replaced by the value derived from a different analysis, the evolution of the planetary boundary layer was more accurately represented while the storm evolution was still correctly captured. These results demonstate that the quality of the initial forecast cannot be ascribed to the moist bias of the model. It could therefore be hypothesized that the key parameters for a satisfactory forecast of this event lay more in the ability of the model to accurately reproduce the dynamical forcing than in the characteristics of the air-mass instability.

Document Type:Article
Title:Forecasting summer convection over the Black Forest: A case study from the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) experiment
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Richard, EvelyneCNRS, F
Chaboureau, Jean-PierreCNRS, F
Flamant, CyrilleCNRS, F
Champollion, CedricCNRS, F
Hagen, MartinDLR IPA
Schmidt, KerstenDLR IPA
Kiemle, ChristophDLR IPA
Corsmeier, UlrichKIT IMK
Barthlotte, C.KIT IMK
Di Girolamof, P.Uni degli Studi della Basilicata, Potenza, I
Date:2011
Journal or Publication Title:Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:137
DOI:10.1002/qj.710
Page Range:pp. 101-117
Status:Published
Keywords:orography; surface moisture; water vapour
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Lidar
Deposited By: Dr.rer.nat. Christoph Kiemle
Deposited On:06 Dec 2010 14:44
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 21:06

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