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The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Charlton-Perez, A.J. and Hawkins, E. and Eyring, V. and Cionni, I. and Bodeker, G.E. and Kinnison, D.E. and Akiyoshi, H. and Frith, S.M. and Garcia, R. and Gettelman, A. and Lamarque, J.F. and Nakamura, T. and Pawson, S. and Yamashita, Y. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Dhomse, S. and Marchand, M. and Mancini, E. and Morgenstern, O. and Pitari, G. and Plummer, D. and Pyle, J.A. and Rozanov, E. and Scinocca, J. and Shibata, K. and Shepherd, T.G. and Tian, W. and Waugh, D.W. (2010) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, pp. 9473-9586. DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010.

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Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/9473/2010/acp-10-9473-2010.html


Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an "ensemble of opportunity" of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Document Type:Article
Title:The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Charlton-Perez, A.J.Univ. of Reading, UK
Hawkins, E.Univ. of Reading, UK
Eyring, V.DLR
Cionni, I.DLR
Bodeker, G.E.Bodeker Sci., Alexandra, NZ
Kinnison, D.E.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Akiyoshi, H.Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, J
Frith, S.M.Science Systems and Applications, Lanham, MD, USA
Garcia, R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Gettelman, A.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Lamarque, J.F.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Nakamura, T.Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, J
Pawson, S.NASA, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Yamashita, Y.Nat. Inst. for Environ. Studies, Tsukuba, J
Bekki, S.Service d'Aeronomie, Paris, F
Braesicke, P.Univ. of Cambridge, UK
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Dhomse, S.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Marchand, M.Service d'Aeronomie, Paris, F
Mancini, E.Univ. L'Aquila, I
Morgenstern, O.Nat. Inst. of Water and Atmos. Reasearch, Lauder, NZ
Pitari, G.Univ. L'Aquila, I
Plummer, D.Environ. Canada, Victoria, BC, CND
Pyle, J.A.Univ. of Cambridge, UK
Rozanov, E.World Radiation Center, Davos, CH
Scinocca, J.Environ. Canada, Victoria, BC, CND
Shibata, K.Meteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, J
Shepherd, T.G.Univ. of Toronto, CND
Tian, W.Univ. of Leeds, UK
Waugh, D.W.Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USA
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 9473-9586
Keywords:ozone, stratosphere, GHG, future evolution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:24 Nov 2010 10:42
Last Modified:07 Feb 2013 20:54

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