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The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis

Austin, John and Scinocca, J. and Plummer, D.A. and Oman, L. and Waugh, D. and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Braesicke, P. and Butchart, N. and Chipperfield, M.P. and Cugnet, D. and Dameris, Martin and Dhomse, S. and Eyring, V. and Frith, S. and Garcia, R.R. and Garny, H. and Gettelman, A. and Hardiman, S.C. and Kinnison, D. and Lamarque, J.F. and Mancini, E. and Marchand, M. and Michou, M. and Morgenstern, O. and Nakamura, T. and Pawson, S. and Pitari, G. and Pyle, J. and Rozanov, E. and Shepherd, T.G. and Shibata, K. and Teyssèdre, H. and Wilson, R.J. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115 (D00M10), pp. 1-23. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD013857.

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Official URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/jd/jd1021/2010JD013857/2010JD013857.pdf

Abstract

Simulations of 15 coupled chemistry climate models, for the period 1960�2100, are presented. The models include a detailed stratosphere, as well as including a realistic representation of the tropospheric climate. The simulations assume a consistent set of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, as well as temporally varying chlorofluorocarbon concentrations in accordance with observations for the past and expectations for the future. The ozone results are analyzed using a nonparametric additive statistical model. Comparisons are made with observations for the recent past, and the recovery of ozone, indicated by a return to 1960 and 1980 values, is investigated as a function of latitude. Although chlorine amounts are simulated to return to 1980 values by about 2050, with only weak latitudinal variations, column ozone amounts recover at different rates due to the influence of greenhouse gas changes. In the tropics, simulated peak ozone amounts occur by about 2050 and thereafter total ozone column declines. Consequently, simulated ozone does not recover to values which existed prior to the early 1980s. The results also show a distinct hemispheric asymmetry, with recovery to 1980 values in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics ahead of the chlorine return by about 20 years. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, ozone is simulated to return to 1980 levels only 10 years ahead of chlorine. In the Antarctic, annually averaged ozone recovers at about the same rate as chlorine in high latitudes and hence does not return to 1960s values until the last decade of the simulations.

Document Type:Article
Title:The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multimodel time series analysis
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Austin, JohnNOAA
Scinocca, J.Univ. of Victoria, Victoria, CND
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CND
Oman, L.John Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USA
Waugh, D.John Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD, USA
Akiyoshi, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Bekki, S.INSU, Paris, F
Braesicke, P.Cambridge University, Cambridge, UK
Butchart, N.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Chipperfield, M.P.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Cugnet, D.INSU, Paris, F
Dameris, MartinDLR-PA
Dhomse, S.Univ. of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Eyring, V.DLR-PA
Frith, S.NASA, Maryland, USA
Garcia, R.R.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Garny, H.DLR-PA
Gettelman, A.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Hardiman, S.C.Met Office, Exeter, UK
Kinnison, D.UNSPECIFIED
Lamarque, J.F.UNSPECIFIED
Mancini, E.UNSPECIFIED
Marchand, M.UNSPECIFIED
Michou, M.UNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, O.UNSPECIFIED
Nakamura, T.UNSPECIFIED
Pawson, S.UNSPECIFIED
Pitari, G.UNSPECIFIED
Pyle, J.UNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.UNSPECIFIED
Shepherd, T.G.UNSPECIFIED
Shibata, K.UNSPECIFIED
Teyssèdre, H.UNSPECIFIED
Wilson, R.J.UNSPECIFIED
Yamashita, Y.UNSPECIFIED
Date:2010
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:115
DOI:10.1029/2010JD013857
Page Range:pp. 1-23
Status:Published
Keywords:stratosphere, chemistry-climate models
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:16 Nov 2010 11:24
Last Modified:23 Jan 2014 11:36

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