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Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios

Eyring, Veronika and Cionni, I. and Lamarque, J. F. and Akiyosh, H. and Bodeker, G. E. and Charlton-Perez, A. J. and Frith, S. M. and Gettelman, A. and Kinnison, D. E. and Nakamura, T. and Oman, L. D. and Pawson, S. and Yamashita, Y. (2010) Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios. Geophysical Research Letters, 37 (L16807), pp. 1-7. DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044443.

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Official URL: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1016/2010GL044443/2010GL044443.pdf


To understand how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may affect future stratospheric ozone, 21st century projections from four chemistry‐climate models are examined for their dependence on six different GHG scenarios. Compared to higher GHG emissions, lower emissions result in smaller increases in tropical upwelling with resultant smaller reductions in ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and less severe stratospheric cooling with resultant smaller increases in upper stratospheric ozone globally. Increases in reactive nitrogen and hydrogen that lead to additional chemical ozone destruction mainly play a role in scenarios with higher GHG emissions. Differences among the six GHG scenarios are found to be largest over northern midlatitudes (∼20 DU by 2100) and in the Arctic (∼40 DU by 2100) with divergence mainly in the second half of the 21st century. The uncertainty in the return of stratospheric column ozone to 1980 values arising from different GHG scenarios is comparable to or less than the uncertainty that arises from model differences in the larger set of 17 CCMVal‐2 SRES A1B simulations. The results suggest that effects of GHG emissions on future stratospheric ozone should be considered in climate change mitigation policy and ozone projections should be assessed under more than a single GHG scenario.f these parameters.

Document Type:Article
Title:Sensitivity of 21st century stratospheric ozone to greenhouse gas scenarios
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Eyring, VeronikaDLR
Cionni, I.DLR
Lamarque, J. F. NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Akiyosh, H.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Bodeker, G. E. Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, NZ
Charlton-Perez, A. J. Univ. of Reading, Reading, UK
Frith, S. M. Science Systems and Applications, Lanham, MD, USA
Gettelman, A.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Kinnison, D. E.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA
Nakamura, T.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Oman, L. D. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Pawson, S.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Yamashita, Y.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, J
Date:February 2010
Journal or Publication Title:Geophysical Research Letters
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 1-7
Keywords:ozone, stratosphere, GHG, future evolution
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport (old)
HGF - Program:Space (old)
HGF - Program Themes:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research area:Space
DLR - Program:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):W - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:01 Oct 2010 16:00
Last Modified:26 Mar 2013 13:20

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