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Sensitivity of Typhoon Forecasts to Different Subsets of Targeted Dropsonde Observations

Harnisch, Florian und Weissmann, Martin (2010) Sensitivity of Typhoon Forecasts to Different Subsets of Targeted Dropsonde Observations. Monthly Weather Review, 138 (7), Seiten 2664-2680. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3309.1

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Offizielle URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3309.1


For the first time, joint tropical cyclone (TC) surveillance missions by several aircraft were conducted in the western North Pacific basin within the framework of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) 2008. The collected dropsonde observations were divided into three different subsets depending on their location relative to the TC to investigate which observations are most beneficial for typhoon track forecasting. Data denial experiments with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global model were performed to analyze the influence of the different dropsonde subsets. In these experiments, the largest TC track forecast improvements are found for observations in the vicinity of the storm, placed at a circular ring at the outer boundary of the TC. In contrast, observations in remote regions indicated to be sensitive by singular vectors seem to have a relatively small influence with a slight positive tendency on average. Observations in the TC core and center lead to large analysis differences, but only very small mean forecast improvements. This is likely related to the fact that even modern high-resolution global models cannot fully resolve the TC center and thus can only use a relatively small part of the information provided by observations within the TC center. Times prior to landfall and recurvature are stronger affected by additional observations, while the influence on the track forecast after recurvature is relatively weak.

Titel:Sensitivity of Typhoon Forecasts to Different Subsets of Targeted Dropsonde Observations
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID
Harnisch, Florianflorian.harnisch@dlr.deNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:Juli 2010
Erschienen in:Monthly Weather Review
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
DOI :10.1175/2010MWR3309.1
Seitenbereich:Seiten 2664-2680
Verlag:American Meteorological Society
Stichwörter:Typhoon forecast, targeting, dropsonde
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Verkehr und Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programm:Weltraum (alt)
HGF - Programmthema:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Weltraum
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:W EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):W - Projekt ADM II (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Lidar
Hinterlegt von: Harnisch, Florian
Hinterlegt am:07 Sep 2010 08:19
Letzte Änderung:12 Dez 2013 21:01

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