FORECASTING METHOD FOR DISRUPTIVE SPACE TECHNOLOGIES

Kurzfassung

This thesis documents on a research initiative performed on Disruptive Space Technologies in the European space sector and explains a method of forecasting them. It was undertaken at the German aerospace center (DLR) in Bremen in co-operation with the University of Groningen as the author’s master thesis. The theory of Disruptive Technologies, explains the evolution of technologies which disrupt the status quo of both dominant technology platforms and competitive market layouts. It does this by having an alternate performance mix, which is perceived as more valuable by the customer than the dominant technology. Several interviews resulted to the conclusion that there is a difference between disruptive technologies as described in business literature and disruptive technologies for the space sector. This is caused by fundamental differences in market dynamics between the terrestrial market and the space sector. This difference creates the necessity for the creation of a new theory of disruptive technologies for the space sector, or disruptive space technologies. This thesis does this by explaining the distinction between the various innovation types and disruptive technologies. Based on these distinctions and the characteristics of the space sector, a new theory of disruptive space technologies has been elaborated. With the help of this new theory, an evaluation tool has been constructed, which can be used as a forecasting method for these disruptive space technologies. This has been done by researching criteria which indicate a potential for disruptiveness of technologies in the space sector. These criteria can be evaluated using a concept scoring matrix which will compare several potentially disruptive space technology concepts with a dominant space technology. The results of this evaluation will be a forecast for the layout of a specific space technology domain. Nevertheless, the purpose of this research is not to deliver a ready to use method, but rather to indicate a general direction in which future research could lead to an accurate disruptive space technologies forecasting method.