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Market prospects of passenger vehicle technologies and their effect on CO2 emissions up to the year 2030: A model based approach

Mock, Peter and Schmid, Stephan and Propfe, Bernd (2010) Market prospects of passenger vehicle technologies and their effect on CO2 emissions up to the year 2030: A model based approach. The 3rd International Conference on Eco-Efficiency, 9.-11. Juni 2010, Egmond aan Zee, Niederlande.

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Abstract

A method for assessing the potential and costs of various technologies for CO2 emission reduction of passenger cars, using a newly built computer model, is presented. A variety of vehicle technologies, each with different attributes regarding CO2 emissions and costs, is simulated for the supply side, as well a variety of different synthetic customer groups for the demand side within the model. An econometric based selection process calculates the number of each type of new vehicle sold in any year of the simulation. Hence, deriving future market shares of vehicle technologies and overall CO2 emissions is possible. The detailed technology database used for calculations includes conventional vehicle propulsion technologies as well as innovative vehicle concepts. Cost degression effects for new technologies are incorporated using learning curves, with costs depending on the cumulative number of vehicles sold. Different types of fuels and influence of crude oil price on fuel prices are taken into account, as well as different taxation systems. Using the model, different scenarios for future development of CO2 emissions of the new vehicle fleet as well as the vehicle stock are evaluated for the time period 2009-2030.

Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Other, Speech)
Title:Market prospects of passenger vehicle technologies and their effect on CO2 emissions up to the year 2030: A model based approach
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Mock, Peterpeter@theicct.org
Schmid, Stephanstephan.schmid@dlr.de
Propfe, Berndbernd.propfe@dlr.de
Date:10 June 2010
Refereed publication:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:comparison of propulsion technologies, model based assessment, (plug-in) hybrid, Lithium-ion battery, fuel-cell, energy need, production costs, learning curves, total cost of ownership, customers, market shares, CO2 emissions, well-to-wheel, fuels, new vehicles market, vehicle stock
Event Title:The 3rd International Conference on Eco-Efficiency
Event Location:Egmond aan Zee, Niederlande
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:9.-11. Juni 2010
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - VECTOR21 (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Technology Assessment
Deposited By: Bernd Propfe
Deposited On:23 Jun 2010 16:00
Last Modified:12 Dec 2013 20:58

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