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Comparison and validation of two high-resolution weather forecast models at Frankfurt Airport

Dengler, Klaus und Keil, Christian und Frech, Michael und Gerz, Thomas und Kober, Kirstin (2009) Comparison and validation of two high-resolution weather forecast models at Frankfurt Airport. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18, Seiten 531-542. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0399. ISSN 0941-2948.

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Offizielle URL: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/schweiz/mz/2009/00000018/00000005/art00005

Kurzfassung

In recent years the 'Nowcasting Wake Vortex Impact Variables' model NOWVIV has been developed at the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR, to forecast weather parameters in airport environments. The German Meteorological Service, DWD, employs his COSMO-DE model (COnsortium for Small scale Modelling-DEutschland) for operational forecasts in Germany. A systematic comparison of model output from NOWVIV and a derivate of COSMO-DE, named COSMO-FRA, is presented. Both models are centred at Frankfurt Airport with horizontal resolutions of 2.1 km and 2.8 km, respectively. In the DLR Project Wetter & Fliegen the COSMO-FRA model will replace the NOWVIV model and become a key component in the future rapid update cycle for adverse weather predictions at the airports of Frankfurt and Munich. The forecast vertical profiles of runway crosswind, head/tail wind, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) are validated against Wind and Temperature Radar (WTR/RASS) measurements operated by the German Air Navigation Service Provider, DFS, within a 40 day period during fall 2004 and a 60 day period during winter 2007. Model and WTR output is provided every 10 minutes. In general it was found that the predictions of both models yield similar skills based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias statistics of the crosswind as well as the false alarm-rate (FAR) statistics in forecasting different crosswind thresholds. The RMSE of crosswind between ground and 1600 m altitude ranges between 2.2 and 3.0 ms-1 for NOWVIV in fall and winter. For COSMO-FRA this error ranges between 2.0 and 2.5 ms-1 during winter and 2.5 and 3.5 ms-1 during fall, respectively. The FAR for exceeding a crosswind threshold of 3 ms-1 is about 23 % in fall and 17 % in winter for both models.

Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:Comparison and validation of two high-resolution weather forecast models at Frankfurt Airport
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID
Dengler, KlausDLR, IPANICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Keil, ChristianDLR, IPANICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Frech, MichaelDWD, HohenpeissenbergNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Gerz, ThomasDLR, IPANICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Kober, KirstinDLR, IPANICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:2009
Erschienen in:Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Referierte Publikation:Ja
In Open Access:Ja
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
Band:18
DOI :10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0399
Seitenbereich:Seiten 531-542
ISSN:0941-2948
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:lokale Wettervorherage für Flughäfen, Wirbelschleppen, NOWVIV, COSMO-FRA
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Luftfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:L VU - Luftverkehr und Umwelt (alt)
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Luftfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:L VU - Luftverkehr und Umwelt
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):L - Luftverkehr und Wetter (alt)
Standort: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Wolkenphysik und Verkehrsmeteorologie
Hinterlegt von: Freund, Jana
Hinterlegt am:17 Dez 2009 12:06
Letzte Änderung:18 Apr 2016 09:48

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