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Comparison and validation of two high-resolution weather forecast models at Frankfurt Airport

Dengler, Klaus and Keil, Christian and Frech, Michael and Gerz, Thomas and Kober, Kirstin (2009) Comparison and validation of two high-resolution weather forecast models at Frankfurt Airport. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18, pp. 531-542. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0399.

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Official URL: http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/schweiz/mz/2009/00000018/00000005/art00005

Abstract

In recent years the 'Nowcasting Wake Vortex Impact Variables' model NOWVIV has been developed at the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR, to forecast weather parameters in airport environments. The German Meteorological Service, DWD, employs his COSMO-DE model (COnsortium for Small scale Modelling-DEutschland) for operational forecasts in Germany. A systematic comparison of model output from NOWVIV and a derivate of COSMO-DE, named COSMO-FRA, is presented. Both models are centred at Frankfurt Airport with horizontal resolutions of 2.1 km and 2.8 km, respectively. In the DLR Project Wetter & Fliegen the COSMO-FRA model will replace the NOWVIV model and become a key component in the future rapid update cycle for adverse weather predictions at the airports of Frankfurt and Munich. The forecast vertical profiles of runway crosswind, head/tail wind, temperature, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) are validated against Wind and Temperature Radar (WTR/RASS) measurements operated by the German Air Navigation Service Provider, DFS, within a 40 day period during fall 2004 and a 60 day period during winter 2007. Model and WTR output is provided every 10 minutes. In general it was found that the predictions of both models yield similar skills based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias statistics of the crosswind as well as the false alarm-rate (FAR) statistics in forecasting different crosswind thresholds. The RMSE of crosswind between ground and 1600 m altitude ranges between 2.2 and 3.0 ms-1 for NOWVIV in fall and winter. For COSMO-FRA this error ranges between 2.0 and 2.5 ms-1 during winter and 2.5 and 3.5 ms-1 during fall, respectively. The FAR for exceeding a crosswind threshold of 3 ms-1 is about 23 % in fall and 17 % in winter for both models.

Document Type:Article
Title:Comparison and validation of two high-resolution weather forecast models at Frankfurt Airport
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of Authors
Dengler, KlausDLR
Keil, ChristianDLR
Frech, MichaelDWD, Hohenpeissenberg
Gerz, ThomasDLR
Kober, KirstinDLR
Date:2009
Journal or Publication Title:Meteorologische Zeitschrift
Refereed publication:Yes
In Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:18
DOI:10.1127/0941-2948/2009/0399
Page Range:pp. 531-542
Status:Published
Keywords:lokale Wettervorherage für Flughäfen, Wirbelschleppen, NOWVIV, COSMO-FRA
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:L VU - Air Traffic and Environment (old)
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L VU - Air Traffic and Environment
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Air Traffic and Weather (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics and Traffic Meteorology
Deposited By: Jana Freund
Deposited On:17 Dec 2009 12:06
Last Modified:26 Sep 2014 03:02

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